Iran-US Tensions Escalate; Global Impact Feared

The report highlights the ongoing uncertainty and violence in the Iran-US conflict, including threats from President Trump and Iran's retaliatory stance.

An expert in security and foreign affairs analyzes the current situation, discussing the possibility of de-escalation and Iran's response to US threats.

The expert explains that neither side will stop fighting suddenly and that both are likely to escalate their actions to gain an advantage.

Discussions reveal that numerous proposals are on the negotiating table through informal channels and intermediary nations, though not yet officially accepted.

Both sides are escalating attacks, including concerns about intercontinental ballistic missiles and targeting of nuclear facilities, leading to civilian casualties.

Attacks have targeted civilian infrastructure such as airports, residential areas, water treatment plants, schools, and amusement parks, with potential strikes on major power plants.

The conflict's impact on energy prices, particularly natural gas, is discussed, with potential price hikes affecting Europe and consequently Thailand.

Experts estimate the conflict's impact could last from 2-3 months to 6 months, depending on preparation and conservation measures by various countries.

The difficulty in controlling public panic, hoarding, and fear is highlighted as a significant challenge, with some countries implementing stricter laws.

The discussion revisits the Strait of Hormuz issue, with the US issuing an ultimatum and Iran asserting its potential control if the war ends.

Negotiations are broken down into three levels, starting with the 48-hour ultimatum for opening the Strait of Hormuz and potential temporary ceasefires.

Several countries, including EU members and Japan, are considering sending naval forces to protect their oil tankers and cargo ships if a ceasefire is agreed upon.

The need for Thailand to consider its own naval presence and preparedness in light of the escalating regional tensions is mentioned.

The Department of Business of Energy confirms Thailand has approximately 103 days of oil reserves, but experts question its sufficiency given complex supply chains.

The actual available oil reserves are complex, involving stored oil, incoming shipments, and pre-agreed future purchases, with uncertainties in confirmation.

The government has clarified increased oil consumption, but public confidence remains low, mirroring similar situations in other countries with hoarding and fear.

The current conflict's impact is felt worldwide, with Iran's use of medium-range missiles threatening European capitals and prompting calls for an end to hostilities.

International pressure from various nations, including China, Russia, and Gulf states, is seen as a significant factor in potentially de-escalating the conflict.

The advanced intercontinental ballistic missile technology implies complex support systems from multiple countries, not solely Iran.

Attacks on Iran are not solely conducted by the US and Israel, with several other countries, including the UK, providing military bases and support.

There's a call for all parties to pressure each other to end the confrontation and halt support for the ongoing conflict.

Direct pressure from the international community is difficult due to the distance from the conflict and the UN's lack of enforcement capabilities.

The war's impact is recognized as extensive, affecting nearly every system and region globally, creating significant pressure for resolution.

While the underlying causes of conflict may be similar to past events, the assassination of a leader and extensive destruction of infrastructure make current negotiations more complex.

The destruction of infrastructure will require extensive time for recovery, with energy production potentially impacted for 3-5 years or more.

The expert expresses concern over the Middle East situation and hopes for a swift resolution, noting that existing proposals on the table offer some reassurance.