YLG: Gold Supercycle Continues, 16 Years Left, Buy Dips

Thansettakij•Economy•19d ago

Reader Briefing

YLG predicts gold's supercycle has 16 years remaining and recommends accumulating during price dips, forecasting a historic rise above $5,000 real price by 2026.

•YLG believes gold's 'Supercycle' is ongoing with approximately 16 years left, viewing current market weakness as a temporary consolidation phase.
•The firm anticipates gold prices, in real terms adjusted for inflation, could surpass $5,000 per troy ounce in 2026, a historic high.
•Key drivers identified include central bank purchases, de-dollarization trends, public debt, geopolitics, and inflation.
•YLG advises investors to buy gold during price pullbacks within the $3,500-$3,900 range, citing limited downside risk.

Overview

•YLG analyzes gold's market cycle, identifying it as a 'Supercycle' based on Elliott Wave theory.
•The current gold 'Supercycle' began in 1971 after the US abolished the Gold Standard, and is projected to continue for approximately another 16 years.
•YLG asserts that the current price weakness represents 'Wave 4' of the 'Cycle' level, a sub-wave within 'Wave 5' of the Supercycle.
•In 2026, gold prices are projected to exceed $5,000 per troy ounce in real terms, surpassing the high of the year 1980, marking a new historical peak against inflation.
•The strong upward trend in gold is attributed to the convergence of five major positive factors, primarily central bank buying and de-dollarization.
•Central banks globally purchased approximately 244 tons of gold net in the first quarter of this year, exceeding the previous quarter and the 5-year average.
•YLG forecasts potential price consolidation between $3,900-$3,500 per troy ounce, recommending accumulation during these dips.
•YLG identifies initial resistance levels at $4,200-$4,382, with further upside potential towards $4,890-$5,260 if these levels are breached.

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Key Quotes

YLG

"YLG is confident that gold has not ended its upward cycle, viewing current weakness as merely a mid-path consolidation of the 'Supercycle'."

YLG มั่นใจทองคำยังไม่สิ้นสุดวัฏจักรขาขึ้น มองการอ่อนตัวในปัจจุบันเป็นเพียงการพักฐานระหว่างทางของ "Supercycle"

YLG

"YLG assesses that gold's entry into a stronger upward cycle than any period in over 20 years is due to the convergence of 5 key positive factors."

YLG ประเมินว่า การที่ทองคำเข้าสู่รอบขาขึ้นที่แข็งแกร่งกว่าทุกช่วงในรอบกว่า 20 ปี มาจากการบรรจบกันของปัจจัยบวกสำคัญ 5 ด้าน

YLG

"YLG recommends investors use a 'Buy on Dip' strategy, accumulating in tranches as prices pull back."

YLG แนะนำให้นักลงทุนใช้กลยุทธ์ ทยอยสะสม (Buy on Dip) โดยแบ่งซื้อเป็นไม้ ๆ หากราคาย่อลง

Key Entities

Organization

YLG

A company providing analysis and recommendations on the gold market.

World Gold Councilℹ️

An industry organization that commissions research and provides data on the global gold market.

FOMCℹ️

The Federal Open Market Committee, a key body of the U.S. Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy.

Fedℹ️

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the central banking system of the United States.

Tetherℹ️

A blockchain-based cryptocurrency, also known as a stablecoin, that is often pegged to the US dollar.

Law

Elliott Waveℹ️

A technical analysis theory used to predict financial market behavior through wave patterns.

Supercycle

A long-term market cycle characterized by a prolonged upward trend, applied here to the gold market.

Gold Standardℹ️

A monetary system where a country's currency or paper money has a value directly linked to gold.

Person

Big Joke(บิ๊กโจ๊ก)

A figure involved in a bribery case related to gold, facing charges from the Supreme Court inquiry.

Akevit(เอกวิทย์)

A figure involved in a bribery case related to gold, facing charges from the Supreme Court inquiry.