UTCC Predicts Thai Economy V-Shape Recovery by Mid-2027

Matichon•Economy•10d ago

Reader Briefing

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has revised Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to 2.5% and predicts a V-shaped recovery by mid-2027.

•Associate Professor Dr. Thanawart Phollivichai revised the 2026 GDP growth projection from 2.0% to 2.5%.
•The Thai economy is expected to transition from a K-shape to a V-shape recovery during the first half of 2027.
•Economic growth in 2027 is projected to range between 2.0-3.0% with a median of 2.5%.
•Key risks include US Section 301 investigations, AI investment cycles, and Middle East conflicts.

Overview

•Associate Professor Dr. Thanawart Phollivichai predicts GDP growth for 2026 will be 2.5%, supported by exports expanding up to 17.7% and 32.5 million foreign tourists.
•Associate Professor Dr. Thanawart Phollivichai expects the Thai economy to transition from a K-Shape to a V-Shape recovery between the end of Q1 and start of Q2 in 2027.
•For 2027, GDP is forecasted to be between 2.0-3.0% with a median of 2.5%, potentially reaching 3% based on government targets.
•Risks to GDP include the US Section 301 investigation regarding Structural Excess Capacity and the sustainability of AI/Hyperscaler investment cycles.
•Middle East conflicts in August 2026 and potential war in the Strait of Hormuz could push Dubai crude oil prices over 100 USD/barrel, potentially reducing Thai GDP by 0.2%.
•The Bank of Thailand is implementing a Credit Portal to match SMEs with lenders and increasing the loan guarantee limit to 200,000 million baht.
•Hosting the second World Bank meeting is expected to generate 5,000-10,000 million baht in immediate economic circulation from 15,000-20,000 attendees.
•Associate Professor Dr. Thanawart Phollivichai suggests the government accelerate the 7,500 million baht energy restructuring project and the 700,000 million baht public investment budget in October-November.

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Key Quotes

Thanawart Phollivichai

"Year 2027 will be the transition from K-Shape to V-Shape: the K-Shape economic condition will remain stable until the end of 2026, and the downturn is expected to turn upward into a V-Shape in the first half of next year."

ปี 2570 จะการเปลี่ยนผ่านจาก K-Shape สู่ V-Shape: ภาวะเศรษฐกิจแบบ K-Shape จะทรงตัวถึงสิ้นปี 2569 นี้ และคาดว่าขาลงจะเริ่มหักหัวขึ้นเป็น V-Shape ช่วงครึ่งแรกของปีหน้า

Key Entities

Person

Thanawart Phollivichai(รศ.ดร.ธนวรรธน์ พลวิชัย)

Rector and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Organization

University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce(มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย)ℹ️

An academic institution that provides economic forecasts for the Thai economy.

Center for Economic and Business Forecasting(ศูนย์พยากรณ์เศรษฐกิจและธุรกิจ)

A forecasting center within the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Board of Investment(BOI)

An organization that provides investment promotion to stimulate construction and machinery imports.

Bank of Thailand(ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย)ℹ️

The central bank providing SME assistance measures such as the Credit Portal.

TCG(บสย.)

An organization previously providing a 100,000 million baht loan guarantee limit.

World Bankℹ️

An international organization that Thailand has been selected to host for its second meeting.

IMFℹ️

An international organization whose meetings Thailand is hosting.

Law

US Section 301

A US legal provision involving investigations into Structural Excess Capacity that may impact Thai exports.

Policy

Thai Thiao Thai Plus(ไทยเที่ยวไทย plus)

A government project with a budget of approximately 2,000 million baht to stimulate domestic tourism.