Trump's Limited Options in Iran Escalation

MGR Online•International•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Analyst Greg Barton argues that US President Donald Trump lacks viable military options to resolve the conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

•Iran is using asymmetric warfare and control over the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the US and its partners.
•The US has conducted bombing raids against Iran in July 2026 to regain control of the strait.
•Escalation risks include attacks on civilian infrastructure, ground invasions, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
•The Houthis in Yemen may escalate attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Overview

•Iran utilizes its power over the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas is transported, as a bargaining chip.
•The United States launched bombing raids against Iran in July 2026 to attempt to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz from Tehran.
•The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) can threaten commercial traffic using drones and missiles, and Iranian missile sites along the strait often remain operational after US attacks.
•Marine insurance companies, such as Lloyd’s of London, have either refused insurance for ships in the strait or charged prohibitively high premiums.
•US military operations in the current conflict are estimated to have cost more than 100,000 million US dollars.
•Potential escalation by Donald Trump against Iranian civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and desalination plants, could trigger Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure in Persian Gulf states.
•The current war began at the end of February, and recently involved a period of national mourning for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
•A US ground invasion of Iran is viewed as high-risk due to Iran's size, mountainous terrain, and domestic military industrial capabilities.

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Key Quotes

Donald Trump

"You have no cards left to play."

คุณไม่มีไพ่ที่จะเล่นได้เลยนะ

Key Entities

Person

Donald Trump(โดนัลด์ ทรัมป์)ℹ️

President of the United States.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy(โวโลดิมีร์ เซเลนสกี)ℹ️

President of Ukraine.

Ali Khamenei(อาลี คอเมเนอี)ℹ️

The late Supreme Leader of Iran.

Greg Barton(เกร็ก บาร์ตัน)ℹ️

Chair in Global Islamic Politics at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University.

Organization

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(กองกำลังพิทักษ์การปฏิวัติอิสลาม)ℹ️

Iranian force capable of threatening commercial traffic with drones and missiles.

Lloyd’s of London(ลอยด์ส แห่งลอนดอน)ℹ️

A marine insurance company.

Houthis(ฮูตี)ℹ️

A group in Yemen that disrupts shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation(สถาบันอัลเฟรด ดีคิน เพื่อความเป็นพลเมืองและโลกาภิวัตน์)ℹ️

An institute at Deakin University.

Deakin University(มหาวิทยาลัยดีคิน)ℹ️

An Australian university.

Place

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A nation currently in conflict with the US and controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A global military power involved in a conflict with Iran.

Ukraine(ยูเครน)ℹ️

A nation supported by the US against Russian invasion.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

A critical waterway for global oil and gas transport.

Persian Gulf(อ่าวเปอร์เซีย)ℹ️

A region containing multiple US bases and energy infrastructure.

Yemen(เยเมน)ℹ️

Location of the Houthis and the city of Sana'a.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait(ช่องแคบบับ เอล-มันเดบ)ℹ️

A shipping bottleneck at the southern end of the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia(ซาอุดีอาระเบีย)ℹ️

A neighbor of Yemen that had a tension-easing agreement with the Houthis.

Kharg Island(เกาะคาร์ก)ℹ️

Iran's oil export hub.

Iraq(อิรัก)ℹ️

A nation invaded by US-led coalition forces in 2003.