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TRIS Rating: Default Rates Hit 5.8%, Highest Since 2000; 3 Industries at Risk

TRIS Rating: Default Rates Hit 5.8%, Highest Since 2000; 3 Industries at Risk

MGR OnlineEconomy22h ago

Reader Briefing

TRIS Rating reports the highest default and payment deferral rates since 2000, reaching 5.8% in 2025, with specific industries facing significant credit challenges.

  • •TRIS Rating's 2025 statistics show default rates at 2.9% and combined default/deferral rates at 5.8%.
  • •The 5.8% rate is the highest recorded since 2000 (B.E. 2543).
  • •The power, residential real estate development, and construction contracting industries are identified as particularly high-risk.
  • •Credit outlooks for private sector issuers have weakened, with 'Negative' outlooks significantly outnumbering 'Positive' ones.

Overview

  • •In 2025, the default rate reached 2.9% in Thailand, as reported by TRIS Rating.
  • •The combined default and payment deferral rate in Thailand reached 5.8% in 2025, the highest since 2000.
  • •Six issuers defaulted and six issuers deferred payments in 2025, predominantly in the power (42%), residential real estate development (17%), and construction contracting (17%) sectors.
  • •In 2025, credit rating downgrades (31) significantly outnumbered upgrades (13), indicating a negative trend.
  • •By the end of 2025, 31 private sector issuers had a 'Negative' credit outlook, compared to only 3 with a 'Positive' outlook.
  • •The negative outlooks are concentrated in residential real estate development (40%), power (20%), and construction contracting (10%).
  • •Cumulative default rates over 1, 2, and 3 years (2025 inclusive) increased to 0.99%, 2.11%, and 3.11%, respectively.
  • •Cumulative default and deferral rates over 1, 2, and 3 years (2025 inclusive) increased to 1.54%, 3.15%, and 4.62%, respectively.

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Key Entities

Organization

TRIS Rating(ทริสเรทติ้ง)ℹ️
A credit rating agency that published statistics on debt defaults and rating transitions in Thailand.
Power Generation Business Sector(กลุ่มธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้า)
An industry identified by TRIS Rating as high-risk, making up 42% of defaults and deferrals in 2025.
Residential Real Estate Development Business Sector(กลุ่มธุรกิจพัฒนาอสังหาริมทรัพย์เพื่อที่อยู่อาศัย)
An industry identified by TRIS Rating as high-risk, accounting for 17% of defaults and deferrals and 40% of negative credit outlooks in 2025.
Construction Contracting Business(ธุรกิจรับเหมาก่อสร้าง)
An industry identified by TRIS Rating as high-risk, making up 17% of defaults and deferrals and 10% of negative credit outlooks in 2025.

Timeline

2000(ปี 2543)
A reference year for the historical high of default and payment deferral rates, 5.8%, recorded in 2025.
2025(ปี 2568)
The year for which TRIS Rating reported default, payment deferral, and credit outlook statistics.
1994(ปี 2537)
A reference year used in the calculation of cumulative default and deferral rates from 1994 to 2025.

Policy

Investment Grade(ระดับลงทุนได้ (Investment Grade))ℹ️
A credit rating designation for issuers with a lower risk of default, two of which were impacted by defaults in 2025.
BBB-
A specific investment grade credit rating level held by two issuers that defaulted in 2025.