Treasury Projects 2% GDP Growth for 2025; Krungsri Warns of Export Risks

Prachachat•Economy•253d ago

Reader Briefing

Thailand's Ministry of Finance forecasts 2.0% GDP growth for 2026, driven by domestic demand and tourism, while Krungsri Research highlights export vulnerabilities.

•The Ministry of Finance projects Thailand's GDP to grow by 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
•The tourism sector is expected to be a key driver in 2026, with 35.5 million foreign tourist arrivals.
•Krungsri Research warns that Thai exports, despite a strong 2025, face a slowdown in 2026 due to global economic risks and competitiveness issues.
•Government budget delays for fiscal year 2570 (2027) may impact public investment in late 2026.

Overview

•The Ministry of Finance adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2025 (B.E. 2568) to 2.2%, down from 2.4% in October 2568 (2025).
•The Ministry of Finance forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow by 2.0% (range 1.5-2.5%) in 2026 (B.E. 2569).
•The value of goods exports in US dollars is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026 (B.E. 2569), slowing from previous periods.
•The Ministry of Finance anticipates 35.5 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 (B.E. 2569), a 7% increase from 2025 (B.E. 2568).
•Private consumption in 2026 (B.E. 2569) is projected to grow by 2.5%, while private investment is expected to grow by 3.2%.
•Public consumption is forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2026 (B.E. 2569), but public investment is expected to contract by 1.7% due to a transition in the budget year.
•Krungsri Research warns that Thai exports face increasing geopolitical and trade risks in 2026 (B.E. 2569).
•Delays in the enforcement of the 2570 (2027) Fiscal Budget Expenditure Act are expected to cause a approximately 3-month delay, potentially slowing public investment in late 2026 (B.E. 2569).
•Krungsri Research reported that Thai exports in December 2025 (B.E. 2568) grew by 16.8%, bringing the full year 2025 (B.E. 2568) growth to 12.9%, exceeding initial expectations.

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Key Quotes

Winich WisesSuwannaphum

"This year, although exports show signs of cooling down from the previous year, they can still be maintained. The value of goods exports in US dollars is expected to grow slightly by 1.0%."

ปีนี้แม้ภาคการส่งออกจะมีทิศทางชะลอความร้อนแรงลงจากปีก่อนหน้า แต่ยังคงสามารถประคองตัวได้ โดยคาดว่ามูลค่าส่งออกสินค้าในรูปดอลลาร์สหรัฐ จะขยายตัวเล็กน้อยที่ 1.0%

Winich WisesSuwannaphum

"This year, the main supporting factor still comes from tourism, with foreign tourist numbers expected to increase by 7% to approximately 35.5 million people from around 33 million in 2025."

ปีนี้ปัจจัยสนับสนุนหลักยังมาจากภาคการท่องเที่ยว โดยคาดว่าจำนวนนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติจะเพิ่มขึ้น 7% อยู่ที่ประมาณ 35.5 ล้านคน จากปี 2568 ที่มีราว 33 ล้านคน

Krungsri Research

"However, risks from the global economy must be closely monitored."

อย่างไรก็ตาม ยังคงต้องติดตามความเสี่ยงจากเศรษฐกิจโลกอย่างใกล้ชิด

Krungsri Research

"Thai exports in December 2025 grew strongly by 16.8%, boosting the full year 2025 to exceed expectations at 12.9%, but the momentum is likely to slow down in 2026."

การส่งออกของไทยในเดือน ธ.ค. 2568 โตแรง 16.8% หนุนทั้งปี 2568 ขยายตัวเกินคาดที่ 12.9% แต่โมเมนตัมมีแนวโน้มชะลอลงในปี 2569

Key Entities

Organization

Fiscal Policy Office (FPO)(สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการคลัง (สศค.))ℹ️

The Fiscal Policy Office of Thailand's Ministry of Finance, responsible for economic forecasting and policy recommendations.

Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)ℹ️

The research arm of Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), providing economic analysis and forecasts.

Bank of Ayudhya(ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา)ℹ️

A major commercial bank in Thailand, whose research division is Krungsri Research.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)(กองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (IMF))ℹ️

An international organization that provides global economic outlooks and forecasts.

Board of Investment (BOI)(BOI)ℹ️

The Thai government agency responsible for promoting investment in Thailand.

Person

Mr. Winich WisesSuwannaphum(นายวินิจ วิเศษสุวรรณภูมิ)

Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), who provided the economic forecasts from the FPO.

Law

Fiscal Budget Expenditure Act B.E. 2570(พ.ร.บ.งบประมาณรายจ่ายประจำปี 2570)

The budget law for the fiscal year 2570 (2027), whose delayed enforcement is impacting public investment.