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TPSO China Agri-Food Export Opportunities and Risks

TPSO China Agri-Food Export Opportunities and Risks

Khaosod•Economy•35m ago

Reader Briefing

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office outlines shifting trends in the Chinese agricultural market, highlighting opportunities for premium products and risks for rice and sugar exports.

  • •China is increasing self-reliance in grains and meat while expanding exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic animals.
  • •Thai premium and processed fruits, processed chicken, and processed seafood are identified as high-opportunity exports.
  • •Thai rice and sugar exports face risks due to China's goal of increasing domestic production and reducing imports.
  • •China's market is shifting from high-volume imports to high-quality and diverse products by 2035.

Overview

  • •The Trade Policy and Strategy Office monitored China's agricultural import trends for the next decade.
  • •In 2025, China's total grain production reached a record 715 million tons and total meat production exceeded 100 million tons for the first time.
  • •China's imports of corn decreased by 80.6% and wheat decreased by 64.4%, reflecting a focus on food security and self-reliance.
  • •Fruit imports to China are expected to grow by an average of 6.1% per year, with domestic consumption expected to reach 369 million tons in 2035.
  • •China's poultry imports are projected to reach approximately 1.27 million tons in 2035, growing at an average of 2.4% per year.
  • •Rice imports to China are projected to decrease by an average of 9.1% per year, potentially leaving only 0.95 million tons by 2035.
  • •China aims to increase domestic sugar production by an average of 2.5% per year, which may reduce sugar imports to around 4 million tons in 2035.
  • •The Trade Policy and Strategy Office suggests Thai exporters upgrade product quality, build brands, and diversify export markets.

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Key Entities

Person

Nanthapong Jiralertpong(นันทพงษ์ จิระเลิศพงษ์)
Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Organization

Trade Policy and Strategy Office(สำนักงานนโยบายและยุทธศาสตร์การค้า)
An agency under the Ministry of Commerce that studies and monitors agricultural import trends in China.
Ministry of Commerce(กระทรวงพาณิชย์)ℹ️
The ministry overseeing the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Place

China(จีน)ℹ️
A major importer and exporter of agricultural products focusing on food security and high-quality goods.
Thailand(ไทย)ℹ️
An exporter of fruits, processed chicken, and seafood to the Chinese market.