Tisco Warns September Market Volatility and Recommends Defensive Stock

MGR Online•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

Tisco Securities warns of increased volatility in the Thai stock market for September due to international trade tensions, high US bond yields, and domestic political uncertainty.

•Tisco Securities recommends a cautious approach with low-beta stocks including ADVANC, CPALL, CPF, ERW, HANA, TASCO, and TTB.
•Global risks include US tariffs on Canadian and Chinese goods and sanctions on Iran.
•Domestic risks center on four parliamentary agendas and court rulings regarding election issues.
•Tisco Securities suggests GOLD19 and VT03 as foreign investment options via DR.

Overview

•Tisco Securities expects the Thai stock market in September to be more volatile due to trade wars, high US government bond yields, and domestic political uncertainty.
•US government bond yields have reached multi-year highs, with 10-year yields at approximately 4.7% and 30-year yields around 5.2-5.3%.
•Tisco Economic Strategy Center (TISCO ESU) found that if 10-year US bond yields rise more than 50 basis points in one month, US stocks typically face a correction of 7-9%.
•The annual ordinary parliamentary session for 2026 takes place from August 25 to December 22, focusing on four main agendas including a 400 billion baht loan decree.
•The Election Commission is expected to reach a resolution on the Senate collusion case by mid-September.
•The Constitutional Court is scheduled to deliver a ruling on the use of barcodes on ballots on September 28.
•Tisco Securities recommends a Defensive Growth & Recovery theme focusing on large-cap stocks with a Beta lower than 1, specifically ADVANC, CPALL, CPF, and TTB.
•Tisco Securities estimates the SET Index support levels at 1,580 and 1,540-1,550 points, with resistance at 1,620-1,630 and 1,660 points.

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Key Entities

Organization

Tisco Securities(บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ ทิสโก้ จำกัด)

A securities firm providing market assessments and investment recommendations for the Thai stock market.

Tisco Economic Strategy Center(ศูนย์วิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจและกลยุทธ์ทิสโก้)

The research unit of Tisco known as TISCO ESU that studies the impact of bond yields on stock markets.

Federal Reserve(ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

The US central bank, referred to as FED, whose stance influences bond yields.

Election Commission(คณะกรรมการการเลือกตั้ง)

The body expected to rule on the Senate collusion case in mid-September.

Supreme Court(ศาลฎีกา)ℹ️

The court that may consider parts of the Senate collusion case.

Constitutional Court(ศาลรัฐธรรมนูญ)ℹ️

The court deciding on the legality of barcode use on election ballots on September 28.

Person

Apichat Phubanchertkul(อภิชาติ ผู้บรรเจิดกุล)

Senior Director of Strategic Analysis at Tisco Securities.

Place

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country implementing tariffs and sanctions that affect global economic growth.

Canada(แคนาดา)ℹ️

A country facing US tariffs and implementing retaliatory tax measures.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country likely to face increased tariffs from the United States.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A country subject to expanded US sanctions.

Law

400 Billion Baht Loan Emergency Decree(พระราชกำหนดกู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A piece of legislation under consideration during the 2026 ordinary parliamentary session.

Annual Expenditure Budget Bill 2027(ร่างพระราชบัญญัติงบประมาณรายจ่ายประจำปี 2570)

A budget bill for the year 2027 under consideration in parliament.