Tisco: Sell Thai Stocks at 1,500 Points Due to Sell in May & MSCI Downgrade

Prachachat•Economy•9d ago

Reader Briefing

Tisco Securities advises investors to sell Thai stocks and take profits if the SET Index surpasses 1,500 points, citing the 'Sell in May' phenomenon and a potential MSCI downgrade impacting capital flows.

•Tisco Securities has recommended selling Thai stocks and realizing profits if the SET Index rises above 1,500 points.
•The recommendation is based on the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy and the MSCI's potential downgrade of Thai stocks.
•The MSCI review on May 12, 2026, could lead to an outflow of approximately 7.1 billion baht due to adjustments in free float calculation criteria.
•Historical data from 2021-2025 shows foreign investment typically declines in May and June, impacting Thai stock market performance.
•Despite global geopolitical concerns and market volatility, some Thai companies have reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, providing limited downside risk.

Overview

•MSCI will announce review results on May 12, 2026, with an effective closing price on May 29, 2026.
•The 'Sell in May and Go Away' concept and dividend earnings are contributing to profit-taking pressure.
•An estimated 220 million USD, or about 7.1 billion THB, may flow out due to MSCI downgrading Thai stocks.
•Foreign capital is not expected to return quickly, with potential outflows this month due to MSCI index reviews.
•Foreign investment in May to June over the last 5 years (2021-2025) has historically been negative with an 80-100% probability.
•The average return of the SET Index during May-June in the past 5 years has been -1.0% to -3.3%.
•Thai stocks are often downgraded by MSCI during review periods, including the current one.
•Tisco Securities recommends holding some cash and suggests buying on dips rather than chasing rallies if the SET Index exceeds 1,500 points.

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Key Quotes

Tisco Securities

"Recommends taking profits when the index exceeds 1,500 points."

แนะให้ขายทำกำไรเมื่อดัชนีพุ่งเกิน 1,500 จุด

Tisco Securities

"Tisco Securities views that foreign capital is unlikely to rush back and may continue to be negative this month."

บล.ทิสโก้มองว่ากระแสเงินทุนต่างชาติยังไม่น่ารีบร้อนไหลกลับมา และอาจติดลบต่อในเดือนนี้

Key Entities

Organization

Tisco Securities(บล.ทิสโก้)ℹ️

A financial institution providing investment recommendations and analysis on the Thai stock market.

MSCIℹ️

An index provider whose potential downgrade of Thai stocks could lead to significant capital outflows.

DELTA