TISCO Sees Limited SET Gain in May: Sell in May & MSCI Drag

MGR Online•Economy•20d ago

Reader Briefing

TISCO Securities anticipates limited upside for the Thai stock market in May, citing geopolitical tensions, MSCI index adjustments, and the 'Sell in May' phenomenon, while recommending selective stock picking and holding some cash.

•TISCO Securities forecasts limited upside for the SET Index in May due to 'Sell in May' and MSCI weight reduction.
•Foreign fund flows have been negative for two months and may continue to be so in May.
•Thai stocks may see outflows of around $220 million USD due to MSCI's review of its free float calculation criteria.
•A historical trend shows foreign investment is often negative in May and June, with the SET Index typically yielding negative returns.

Overview

•The US-Iran conflict has led to a negative trend in foreign fund flows for March and April 2026.
•TISCO Securities anticipates continued negative foreign fund flows in May 2026 due to MSCI index review issues.
•Thai stocks are estimated to experience an underweight revision by MSCI, resulting in an outflow of approximately $220 million USD.
•MSCI will announce its review results on May 12, 2026, effective at the closing price on May 29, 2026.
•Historical data from the past five years (2021-2025) indicates a high probability (80-100%) of negative foreign investment in May and June.
•The Thai stock index (SET Index) typically yields an average return of -1.0% to -3.3% during May and June.
•Primary reasons for the negative trend include the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy, profit-taking after dividend ex-rights, and MSCI weight reductions.
•TISCO Securities recommends holding some cash and advises selling on rallies if the SET Index exceeds 1,500 points, due to limited market upside.

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Key Quotes

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"TISCO Securities believes foreign capital flows are unlikely to return soon and may remain negative this month due to MSCI index review issues."

บล.ทิสโก้มองว่ากระแสเงินทุนต่างชาติยังไม่น่ารีบร้อนไหลกลับมา และอาจติดลบต่อในเดือนนี้จากประเด็นการทบทวนดัชนีของ MSCI

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"Thai stocks are likely to be underweight due to this issue, representing a total outflow of approximately 220 million USD."

หุ้นไทยมีแนวโน้มถูกลดน้ำหนักลงจากประเด็นดังกล่าว คิดเป็นเม็ดเงินไหลออกรวมราว 220 ล้านดอลลาร์ฯ

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"Based on the latest 5-year statistics (2021-2025), foreign investment trends in May to June are often negative, with a high probability of 80-100%."

จากสถิติ 5 ปีล่าสุด (ปี 64-68) ทิศทางการลงทุนต่างชาติในเดือนพฤษภาคมถึงเดือนมิถุนายนมักเป็นลบ โดยมีโอกาสสูงถึง 80-100%

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"TISCO Securities believes the main reasons are 1. Portfolio adjustments based on the global concept of 'Sell in May and Go Away'."

บล.ทิสโก้เชื่อว่ามีสาเหตุหลักจาก 1. การขายปรับพอร์ตจากแนวคิดสากลเกี่ยวกับ "Sell in May and Go Away"

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"TISCO Securities has an improved market outlook due to the easing Middle East situation leading to negotiations and most announced Q1/2026 Thai company financials exceeding expectations."

บล.ทิสโก้ มีมุมมองตลาดดีขึ้นจากสถานการณ์ในตะวันออกกลางที่เริ่มผ่อนคลาย-นำไปสู่การเจรจา และงบไตรมาส 1/69 บจ.ไทยที่ประกาศแล้วส่วนใหญ่ดีกว่าคาด

Apichet Phu-bunjerdkul

"Therefore, it is still recommended to hold some cash and maintain a view that market upside is limited, so if the SET Index recovers above 1,500 points, it is recommended to sell rather than buy."

ดังนั้น ยังแนะนำถือเงินสดบางส่วนและยังคงมุมมอง Upside ตลาดยังจำกัด เพราะฉะนั้นหาก SET Index ฟื้นตัวขึ้นสูงกว่าระดับ 1,500 จุด แนะนำหาจังหวะขายมากกว่าซื้อ

Key Entities

Organization

TISCO Securities(บล.ทิสโก้)ℹ️

A securities company providing analysis and investment recommendations for the Thai stock market.

MSCIℹ️

A global provider of equity, fixed income, and hedge fund stock market indexes, influencing investment weightings.

DELTA(DELTAMSC)ℹ️