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Thai Stocks: 1,420-1,445 Range, Govt Formation & CNY Hopes

Thai Stocks: 1,420-1,445 Range, Govt Formation & CNY Hopes

Prachachat•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Thai stocks are expected to trade within a narrow range of 1,420-1,445 points, as positive sentiment from government formation expectations and the Chinese New Year are balanced by the market having already priced in political developments.

  • •The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index is forecasted to trade between 1,420 and 1,445 points on February 16, 2026.
  • •Key domestic drivers include anticipation of government formation and subsequent economic stimulus measures, alongside positive consumer and tourism sentiment during the Chinese New Year.
  • •Global market trends are shifting from technology stocks to value stocks, offering psychological support to the Thai market with limited downside potential and moderate upside.

Overview

  • •On February 16, 2026, PST Securities forecasts the SET to trade within the 1,420-1,445 point range.
  • •Domestic factors supporting the market include expectations for government formation and resulting economic stimulus measures, due to the positive psychology surrounding the Chinese New Year.
  • •The SET index has already priced in a significant portion of political supporting factors, leading to a cautious investment outlook.
  • •The SET index has risen approximately 15% from its previous low and 5.6% from Election Day, indicating market pricing.
  • •A global rotation from technology stocks to value stocks provides psychological uplift for the Thai stock market, suggesting it will not undergo a sharp correction but may also experience limited upside.
  • •PST Securities recommends focusing on short-term trading in retail (BJC, CRC, CPALL, CPAXT), meat (CPF, TFG), and tourism (AOT, CENTEL, ERW, MINT) sectors, due to factors such as the Chinese New Year consumption boost and Chinese tourist arrivals.
  • •The US Dow Jones closed higher on Friday, with US inflation data for January showing a 2.4% YoY increase, lower than the forecasted 2.5% YoY.
  • •US inflation declined more than analysts expected, primarily due to falling energy prices (gasoline and energy commodities down 7% YoY) and used car prices (-2% YoY), although other product prices saw expansion, potentially increasing global inflation risk due to oil prices.

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Key Quotes

PST Securities
"PST Securities forecasts the SET today (Feb 16, 2026) to move within the 1,420-1,445 point range, domestically supported by expectations of government formation followed by economic stimulus measures, combined with positive psychology during Chinese New Year boosting consumption and tourism."
บล.พายคาด SET วันนี้ (16 ก.พ. 69) เคลื่อนไหวในกรอบ 1,420-1,445 จุด ในประเทศมีปัจจัยหนุนจากความคาดหวังเกี่ยวกับจัดตั้งรัฐบาลและจะตามมาด้วยมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจผสานกับจิตวิทยาเชิงบวกในช่วงตรุษจีนหนุนการบริโภคและการท่องเที่ยว
PST Securities
"The SET INDEX is considered to have already priced in political support factors to a considerable extent, still advising caution in investment."
SET INDEX ก็ถือว่า Price In ปัจจัยหนุนเกี่ยวกับการเมืองไปพอสมควรแล้ว ยังแนะใช้ความระมัดระวังการลงทุน
PST Securities
"Believe the market has priced in considerably from a roughly 15% rise from the previous low and 5.6% from Election Day."
เชื่อว่าตลาด Price In ไปพอสมควรแล้วจากการปรับขึ้นมาราว 15% จากจุดต่ำสุดเดิมและ 5.6% จากวันเลือกตั้ง
PST Securities
"The global trend of rotation from Tech to Value Stocks means the Thai stock market still has psychological support, unlikely to see a sharp correction, but simultaneously may not rise significantly."
กระแสของโลกเกิดการ Rotate จาก Tech มาเป็น Value Stock ทำให้ตลาดหุ้นไทยยังมีปัจจัยหนุนเชิงจิตวิทยา ไม่น่าจะปรับฐานแรง แต่ขณะเดียวกันก็อาจปรับขึ้นได้ไม่มาก

Key Entities

Organization

PST Securities(บล.พาย)
A securities company that provides market forecasts and investment recommendations for the Thai stock market.
Stock Exchange of Thailand(SET)ℹ️
The primary stock exchange in Thailand, whose index (SET Index) represents the performance of listed companies.
CP ALL Public Company Limited(CPALL)ℹ️
A company recommended for short-term trading due to expected recovery in consumption.
Bhumjaithai Party(ภูมิใจไทย)ℹ️
A political party expected to lead the government formation efforts and seek other coalition partners.
Berli Jucker Public Company Limited(BJC)ℹ️
A retail company recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from the Chinese New Year.
Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited(CRC)ℹ️
A retail company recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from the Chinese New Year.
CP all public company limited(CPAXT)
A retail company recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from the Chinese New Year.
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited(CPF)ℹ️
A meat-producing company recommended for short-term trading due to increased demand during the Chinese New Year.
Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited(TFG)ℹ️
A meat-producing company recommended for short-term trading due to increased demand during the Chinese New Year.
Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited(AOT)ℹ️
An airport operator recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from increased tourism from Chinese travelers.
Centara Hotels and Resorts(CENTEL)ℹ️
A hotel operator recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from increased tourism from Chinese travelers.
Earth Retail Public Company Limited(ERW)
A hotel operator recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from increased tourism from Chinese travelers.
Minor International Public Company Limited(MINT)ℹ️
A hospitality company recommended for short-term trading, benefiting from increased tourism from Chinese travelers.
Dow Jones Industrial Average(Dow Jones)ℹ️
A major US stock market index that closed positively, influenced by US inflation data.

Place

United States(US)ℹ️
The country whose inflation data and bond yields are influencing global markets.