Thai Stock Market Profit Forecasts Revised Upward

Matichon•Economy•4d ago

Reader Briefing

Net profits of Thai listed companies in 2Q69 grew significantly, driven primarily by the energy and petrochemical sectors due to Middle East tensions.

•Total net profit of Thai listed companies in 2Q69 reached 391 billion baht, growing 14% YoY and 12.5% QoQ.
•Energy and petrochemical sector profits grew 48% YoY and QoQ, influenced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East infrastructure.
•KGI Securities (Thailand) revised the SET index target to 1,820 points based on a revised EPS of 123 baht.
•Electronics, transport, and banking sectors reported 2Q69 performance better than expected.

Overview

•Total net profits for Thai listed companies in 2Q69 were 391 billion baht, but excluding the energy and petrochemical sectors, the figure drops to 238 billion baht, representing a 0.9% YoY contraction.
•Energy and petrochemical profits rose 48% because US-Iran conflicts led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damaged Middle East oil and gas infrastructure, pushing crude oil prices above 100 USD per barrel in 2Q69.
•The YoY profit slowdown in other sectors was partially due to an abnormally high profit base in 2Q68, specifically a special profit of approximately 56 billion baht recorded by GULF.
•In a study of 96 stocks by KGI Securities (Thailand), 40% performed better than expected, 41% met expectations, and 20% performed lower than expected for 2Q69.
•KGI Securities (Thailand) assesses that the momentum for upward profit revisions is approaching its peak and should stabilize for the remainder of the year.
•KGI Securities (Thailand) warns that if Middle East tensions ease and oil prices drop, the profit forecasts for the volatile commodity-based energy and petrochemical sectors may be revised downward.
•KGI Securities (Thailand) recommends investors focus on individual stocks and sectors with strong performance trends for 2H69-2027 rather than the overall SET index.

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Key Entities

Organization

KGI Securities (Thailand)(บล.เคจีไอ (ประเทศไทย))

The research department that analyzed Thai listed companies' results and revised the SET index target.

SET indexℹ️

The stock market index of Thailand used for profit and target price evaluations.

Mai index

One of the Thai stock market indices included in the net profit calculations for 2Q69.

GULF

A company that recorded a special profit of approximately 56 billion baht in 2Q68.

Place

United States(สหรัฐ)ℹ️

A country involved in conflict with Iran that contributed to energy supply tensions.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A country involved in conflict with the United States, affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

A major global oil transport channel that was closed due to US-Iran conflict.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

The region where war and infrastructure attacks led to tight energy supplies and higher prices.

Russia(รัสเซีย)ℹ️

A country mentioned in the context of a war in 2022 regarding oil price peaks.

Ukraine(ยูเครน)ℹ️

A country mentioned in the context of a war in 2022 regarding oil price peaks.