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Thai GDP forecast: 5% growth in 2029 on stable gov't & strong eco team

Thai GDP forecast: 5% growth in 2029 on stable gov't & strong eco team

Thansettakij•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Thai economic growth projections range from 2.4% in 2025 to a potential 5% by 2029, contingent on political stability and a skilled economic team.

  • •Thailand's GDP grew 2.4% in 2025, exceeding initial forecasts.
  • •Future growth estimates vary, with the private sector predicting 5% by 2029 under specific conditions.
  • •Political stability and a competent economic team are identified as crucial for achieving economic targets.
  • •Combating corruption is seen as essential for maximizing the effectiveness of government spending and boosting investor confidence.

Overview

  • •The Thai economy expanded by 2.4% in 2025, surpassing the earlier forecast of 1.7%.
  • •For 2026, GDP growth is projected to be between 1.5% and 2.5%, with a median of 2%.
  • •The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) believes GDP could reach 5% by 2029, provided the government remains stable and completes its term with a strong economic team.
  • •International organizations like the IMF and World Bank predict slower growth for Thailand in 2026, around 1.6%.
  • •Political stability is identified as a critical factor that will enhance investor and business confidence.
  • •The private sector emphasizes the need for a reshuffled economic cabinet comprising professionals with proven expertise.
  • •Effective implementation of anti-corruption policies is expected to improve Thailand's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and enhance long-term economic potential.
  • •The TCC aims to elevate Thailand from the 'Sick Man of Asia' to a strong economic player, aiming for a top 2 or 3 regional ranking.

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Source: Thansettakij (Original)

Key Quotes

Krengkai Thiennukul
"The key goal is to unlock Thailand from the 'Sick Man of Asia' nickname and return to being an economic 'Strong Man' again."
เป้าหมายสำคัญ คือการปลดล็อกประเทศไทยจากฉายาคนป่วยแห่งเอเชีย (Sick Man of Asia) และกลับมาเป็น Strong Man ทางเศรษฐกิจอีกครั้ง

Key Entities

Organization

Private Sector(เอกชน)
Represents various business and industry groups in Thailand.
Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)(สภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่งประเทศไทย (ส.อ.ท.))
The representative body for industrial businesses in Thailand.
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(สำนักงานสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ (สศช.))ℹ️
The government agency responsible for economic and social planning in Thailand.
NESDC(สภาพัฒน์ฯ)ℹ️
Abbreviation for the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council.
Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB)(คณะกรรมการร่วมภาคเอกชน 3 สถาบัน (กกร.))
A tripartite committee representing three major private sector organizations in Thailand.
Bhumjai Thai Party(พรรคภูมิใจไทย)ℹ️
A political party in Thailand, mentioned in relation to leading the economic team.
International Monetary Fundℹ️
An international organization that promotes global monetary cooperation and financial stability.
World Bankℹ️
An international financial institution that provides loans and grants to the governments of low-income and middle-income countries for capital projects.

Person

Krengkai Thiennukul(เกรียงไกร เธียรนุกุล)
President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).

Policy

Khon La Khrueng Plus Project(โครงการคนละครึ่ง พลัส)
A government stimulus program aimed at boosting domestic purchasing power.

Stat

Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)(ดัชนีภาพลักษณ์คอร์รัปชัน (CPI))ℹ️
A widely respected global index that ranks countries by their perceived levels of public sector corruption.