Thai Economy Beats Expectations, Stocks Face Consolidation, Tourism Eyed

Post Today•Economy•18h ago

Reader Briefing

Thai economic growth surpasses forecasts, driven by investment and consumption, while the stock market anticipates tourism boost amidst consolidation.

•Thailand's GDP growth exceeded expectations at 2.5% YoY, outperforming Bloomberg Consensus.
•Investment, particularly public investment and construction, showed significant expansion.
•Tourism is anticipated to drive the SET index higher, with strong expected Chinese tourist arrivals.
•The NESDC forecasts a 2% GDP growth for 2026, with a focus on controlled risk investment strategies.

Overview

•Thai economic growth expanded by 2.5% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg Consensus of 1.3% YoY.
•Total investment increased by 8% YoY, driven by public sector investment which grew 13% YoY.
•Consumption expanded driven by EV vehicle purchases before the EV 3.0 scheme ends and service sector spending grew 3% YoY.
•Exports grew 9% YoY, primarily from technology goods such as communication and telecommunication equipment which increased by 83% YoY.
•The NESDC forecasts Thai economic growth in 2026 to average 2% YoY.
•Public sector investment is expected to grow by 1.7% YoY in 2026, and consumption by 2.1% YoY.
•ATTA expects average daily Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand between 13-22 Feb 2026 to be 28,000, more than the usual 13,000 per day.
•Today, the announcement of international tourist numbers from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is awaited.

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Key Quotes

Phahurat

"If this is true, it's seen as a positive signal for Thai tourism and benefiting stocks like retail, hotels, and airports."

หากเป็นเช่นนี้จริงมองเป็นสัญญาณเชิงบวกเกี่ยวกับการท่องเที่ยวไทยและหุ้นที่ได้ประโยชน์อย่างพวกค้าปลีก โรงแรม สนามบิน

Blog.

"Today, the SET INDEX is assessed to move within the range of 1,430 - 1,450 points, possibly consolidating after continuous rallies and a decrease in foreign buying pressure creating psychological pressure."

วันนี้ประเมิน SET INDEX เคลื่อนไหวในกรอบ 1,430 - 1,450 จุด อาจพักฐานบ้างจากการ Rally มาต่อเนื่องประกอบกับเริ่มมีแรงซื้อจากต่างชาติที่น้อยลงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันเชิงจิตวิทยา

Key Entities

Organization

PI Securities(บล.พาย)

A securities company that issued an analysis on the Thai economy and stock market.

Dow Jonesℹ️

A major US stock market index referenced in the analysis.

Bloombergℹ️

A financial news and data provider whose consensus forecasts were cited.

NESDC (National Economic and Social Development Council)(สภาพัฒน์)ℹ️

The official body that announced Thailand's economic growth figures and forecasts.

BJCℹ️

A retail company mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

CRCℹ️

A retail company mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

CPALLℹ️

A convenience store operator and retailer, recommended for investment.

HMPROℹ️

A home improvement retailer mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

CPNℹ️

A shopping mall operator mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

ICHIℹ️

A beverage company mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

CBGℹ️

A beverage company mentioned as a beneficiary of potential consumption growth.

ATTA

An organization that provided a forecast for Chinese tourist arrivals.

AOTℹ️

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, a company expected to benefit from tourism, recommended for investment.

CENTELℹ️

A hotel and restaurant operator expected to benefit from tourism, recommended for investment.

MINTℹ️

A hotel and hospitality company expected to benefit from tourism, recommended for investment.

AWCℹ️

A hotel company recommended for purchase, with specific profit forecasts provided.

Ministry of Tourism and Sports(กระทรวงการท่องเที่ยวและกีฬา)ℹ️

The government ministry from which tourist number data is awaited.