'Sukhum Poll' Ranks Bhumjaithai 1st, Overtaking People Party

Matichon•Politics•221d ago

Reader Briefing

Sukhum Poll predicts Bhumjaithai Party will surge to first place, narrowly ahead of the People's Party, citing government performance.

•Sukhum Poll suggests the Bhumjaithai Party is projected to take the lead, surpassing the People's Party by a small margin in the upcoming election.
•The People's Party's momentum is seen as insufficient to reach the level of their previous election performance, despite key campaign focuses.
•Bhumjaithai's ability to highlight the government's three-month performance is considered a key factor in their projected rise.
•Pheu Thai Party is expected to secure third place, with potential for improvement driven by a prominent prime ministerial candidate.

Overview

•In the final stretch of the election campaign, a political analysis by Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul indicates shifts in party favorability.
•Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul predicts the Bhumjaithai Party could secure approximately 130-140 Members of Parliament (MPs), moving them to first place.
•The People's Party is expected to follow in second place, with their MP count being only a few seats less than Bhumjaithai.
•Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul argues the People's Party's current public support does not match the level seen in the 2023 election, limiting their potential to overtake.
•The campaign strategy of the People's Party, including focusing on social security funds and the return of Pita Limjaroenrat, has not significantly expanded their voter base.
•Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul noted that the People's Party's focus on social security is perceived more as an opposition critique than a governing proposal.
•Bhumjaithai Party's identified strength lies in promoting government achievements from the past three months, covering security, foreign affairs, and economy.
•Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul advises Bhumjaithai Party to continue emphasizing security and for parties focused on local engagement to actively campaign door-to-door in the remaining week before the election.

Full article content is available on the original source.

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Source: Matichon (Original)

Key Quotes

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"Bhumjaithai Party has a tendency to move up to 1st place in the final stretch, expecting approximately 130-140 MPs."

พรรคภูมิใจไทยมีแนวโน้มขยับขึ้นมาเป็นอันดับ 1 ในช่วงโค้งสุดท้าย โดยคาดว่าจะได้ ส.ส.ประมาณ 130–140 ที่นั่ง

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"This election is still a close competition among the three major parties."

การเลือกตั้งครั้งนี้ยังเป็นการแข่งขันของ 3 พรรคใหญ่ ที่ขับเคี่ยวกันอย่างสูสี

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"If the People's Party were to truly reach 1st place, the momentum must be at the same level as the 2023 election."

หากพรรคประชาชนจะขึ้นมาเป็นอันดับ 1 ได้จริง กระแสต้องอยู่ในระดับเดียวกับการเลือกตั้งปี 2566

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"The social security issue is good, but it emphasizes being an opposition party more than a government party."

ประเด็นประกันสังคม เป็นเรื่องที่ดี แต่มันเป็นการตอกย้ำความเป็นฝ่ายค้านมากกว่า ความเป็นฝ่ายรัฐบาล

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"The opportunity for the People's Party to expand its voter base is quite limited."

โอกาสที่พรรคประชาชนจะขยายฐานเสียงให้มากกว่าเดิมมีค่อนข้างจำกัด

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"Bhumjaithai Party can still communicate and 'sell the government's 3-month performance' in many dimensions."

พรรคภูมิใจไทยยังสามารถสื่อสารและ “ขายผลงานรัฐบาล 3 เดือน” ได้ในหลายมิติ

Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul

"Bhumjaithai Party should continue to focus on security issues as their main campaign strategy."

พรรคภูมิใจไทยควรยึดประเด็นด้านความมั่นคงเป็นแกนหลักในการหาเสียงต่อไป

Key Entities

Organization

Sukhum Poll(สุขุมโพล)

A political polling organization or analysis conducted by Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nualskul.

Bhumjaithai Party(ภูมิใจไทย)ℹ️

A major political party in Thailand projected to rise to first place in a recent poll.

People's Party(ประชาชน)

A major political party in Thailand projected to be in second place in a recent poll.

Pheu Thai Party(เพื่อไทย)ℹ️

A major political party in Thailand projected to be in third place in a recent poll.

Person

Sukhum Nualskul(สุขุม นวลสกุล)

Former Rector of Ramkhamhaeng University providing analysis on political party popularity.

Pita Limjaroenrat(พิธา ลิ้มเจริญรัตน์)ℹ️

A political figure associated with the People's Party, whose return to campaigning is noted.

Chayan Yoschanan(เชน ยศชนัน)

A prime ministerial candidate for the Pheu Thai Party whose growing popularity is noted.

Policy

Social Security Fund(กองทุนประกันสังคม)ℹ️

A campaign issue highlighted by the People's Party.

Law

Section 112(มาตรา 112)ℹ️

A contentious legal provision (lèse-majesté law) mentioned in relation to political discourse.