SET Overbought: Brokers Eye Mid/Small Caps as Funds Rotate

MGR Online•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Thai stock market's rapid gains may slow as it reaches overbought levels, with analysts predicting a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks.

•Thai stock market (SET) has shown strong performance driven by foreign fund inflows and domestic political clarity.
•Analysts warn the market is entering an 'overbought' zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in its current rally.
•A shift in investment focus is expected from large-cap growth stocks towards undervalued mid and small-cap companies.
•Foreign investors have injected significant capital into the Thai market, particularly in February.
•A target of 1500 for the SET is projected by the end of 2026, contingent on smooth government formation and policy implementation.

•Foreign fund inflows into the Thai stock market have reached 46 billion baht since the beginning of the year.
•In February alone, foreign investors bought 42 billion baht, representing approximately 6.8% of total monthly trading volume.
•The Thai stock market has surged +13.6% since the start of the year, exhibiting broad-based gains.
•The market is currently entering an 'overbought' condition, signaling potential for a slowdown.
•Geopolitical risk indexes for the US, Russia, and China have reached 7-month highs, supporting energy stocks.
•The arrival of Chinese tourists is expected to accelerate during the Chinese New Year in mid-February.
•The valuation gap between SET50 and SSET has widened to its largest in 6 years, indicating mid-small caps are relatively undervalued.
•Brokers recommend focusing on 10 'laggard' stocks with low valuations, dividend yields above 2.5%, and stable earnings

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Pariyapol Khongwanich

"The market is entering overbought territory, plus short-term political uncertainty, giving the market a chance to cool down its momentum."

ตลาดเริ่มเข้าสู่สภาวะซื้อมากเกินไป (overbought) บวกความไม่แน่นอนทางการเมืองระยะสั้น ทำให้ตลาดมีโอกาสเริ่มชะลอความร้อนแรง

Pariyapol Khongwanich

"After the SET50 vs. SSET valuation gap widened to a 6-year high, while market breadth for mid-small caps (SSET) began to improve."

หลัง Valuation gap ของ SET50 เทียบ SSET กว้างสุดในรอบ 6 ปี ขณะที่ market breadth ของกลุ่มหุ้นขนาดกลาง-เล็ก (SSET) เริ่มปรับตัวดีขึ้น

Pariyapol Khongwanich

"If the government formation is smooth, we still see the SET continuing to rise, with a SET target of 1500 by the end of 2026."

หากการจัดตั้งรัฐบาลราบรื่น ยังมอง SET ปรับตัวขึ้นต่อ ประเมิน SET target ปลายปี 2026 ที่ 1500

Brokers(โบรก)

Financial institutions analyzing market trends and providing investment recommendations.

Bualuang Securities(บล.บัวหลวง)

A securities company in Thailand providing wealth research and strategic analysis.

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