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SET Halts as Oil, Yield Rebound on US-Iran Clash

SET Halts as Oil, Yield Rebound on US-Iran Clash

Post Today•Economy•23d ago

Reader Briefing

InnovestX forecasts a short-term consolidation for the SET index, driven by an oil and yield rebound stemming from US-Iran tensions, with limited downside due to anticipated diplomatic resolution and domestic support measures.

  • •The SET index is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to a rebound in oil prices and bond yields, influenced by a clash between US and Iranian forces.
  • •A new USTR tariff of 12.5% on Thailand under Section 301 for forced labor is considered a short-term pressure factor with limited long-term impact.
  • •Domestic support from the 'Thailand Plus' initiative and attractive valuations for the SET ex-DELTA, with a forward PER of 12.5x for FY69, are expected to limit downside.
  • •Investment strategies recommend 'Selective Buy' across three main themes: Earnings Play, Domestic & Laggard Value Play, and New Normal 'S-Curve' stocks.

Overview

  • •InnovestX assesses that the SET index will undergo consolidation as oil prices and bond yields rebound following a clash between US and Iranian forces, though President Trump continues to engage in discussions with Iran.
  • •The USTR's preparation to impose a 12.5% tariff under Section 301 on Thailand for failing to control forced labor is viewed as a short-term pressure factor, as competitors face similar tariffs and legal processes are ongoing.
  • •Technically, the index is showing a slight dip, with the 10-day moving average being a key support level.
  • •In the short term, the SET is predicted to trade sideways with potential for a correction, influenced by seasonal factors and recent gains from AI investment leading to interest in the electronics sector.
  • •Downside for the SET is considered limited due to expectations of a resolution between the US and Iran, which would alleviate concerns about oil supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.
  • •Domestic support is anticipated from the initial spending in the first week of Thailand's 'Thailand Plus' initiative, which aims to circulate funds within the economy.
  • •The valuation of the SET ex-DELTA remains attractive, with a forward PER for FY69 at only 12.5 times, representing -1 standard deviation from the historical average.
  • •Investment strategy recommends 'Selective Buy' in three main themes and three trading ideas, focusing on stocks with strong earnings, domestic plays, and those benefiting from long-term economic restructuring.

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Key Entities

Organization

SETℹ️
The Stock Exchange of Thailand, serving as the primary stock market index analysed.
InnovestX(อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ จำกัด)
A securities company providing an analysis and assessment of the SET index and investment strategies.
USTRℹ️
The United States Trade Representative, responsible for preparing to impose new customs duties on Thailand.
DELTA
A company whose exclusion from SET valuations is noted as making the remaining SET attractive.
ADVANC
A recommended stock for its expected earnings growth in its mobile and FBB businesses and decreasing network expenses.
GULF
A recommended stock in the clean energy sector, benefiting from government policies promoting renewable energy.
MINT
A recommended stock for its earnings play potential and also identified as a trading idea for the World Cup and anti-oil themes.
MTC
A recommended stock within the Earnings Play theme.
TIDLOR
A recommended stock within the Earnings Play theme.
SCGP
A recommended stock within the Earnings Play theme.
CPALL
A recommended Domestic & Laggard Value Play stock benefiting from government stimulus and also listed as a trading idea for the World Cup.
CPN
A recommended Domestic & Laggard Value Play stock benefiting from government stimulus measures.
GLOBAL
A recommended Domestic & Laggard Value Play stock and also a New Normal stock for its indirect benefit in solar rooftop installation.
BEM
A recommended Domestic & Laggard Value Play stock, also listed as a potential Short Covering target for SET50.
TRUE
A recommended Domestic & Laggard Value Play stock and also a trading idea for the World Cup.
GPSC
A recommended New Normal stock in the clean energy sector, benefiting from government renewable energy policies and also in the anti-oil theme.
BGRIM
A recommended New Normal stock in the clean energy sector, benefiting from government renewable energy policies and also in the anti-oil theme.
WHA
A recommended New Normal stock in the industrial estate sector, benefiting from long-term economic restructuring policies.
AMATA
A recommended New Normal stock in the industrial estate sector, benefiting from long-term economic restructuring policies.
SCC
A recommended New Normal stock indirectly benefiting from solar rooftop installation.
BANPU
A recommended New Normal stock indirectly benefiting from solar rooftop installation.
HMPRO
A recommended New Normal stock indirectly benefiting from solar rooftop installation, also listed as a potential Short Covering target for SET50.
GUNKUL
A recommended New Normal stock indirectly benefiting from solar rooftop installation.
CPAXT
A stock expected to benefit from the World Cup 2026.
CENTEL
A stock expected to benefit from the World Cup 2026 and also recommended in the anti-oil/reopening theme.
HTC
A stock expected to benefit from the World Cup 2026.
BDMS
A SET50 stock identified as a potential short covering target due to its significant price drop.
LH
A SET50 stock identified as a potential short covering target.
AAV
An airline stock recommended in the anti-oil & reopening theme, benefiting from progress in peace negotiations.
THAI
An airline stock recommended in the anti-oil & reopening theme, benefiting from progress in peace negotiations.
AH
An automotive stock recommended in the anti-oil & reopening theme.
SAT
An automotive stock recommended in the anti-oil & reopening theme.
BLA
A recommended stock benefiting from rising government bond yields and continued earnings growth, with an attractive PE ratio.

Place

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️
A country involved in geopolitical tensions with Iran, influencing global oil prices and market sentiment.
Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️
A country involved in geopolitical tensions with the United States, impacting global oil prices and market stability.
Thailand(ไทย)ℹ️
A country subject to potential USTR tariffs and benefiting from domestic economic stimulus measures.

Person

President Trump(ปธน.ทรัมป์)ℹ️
The President of the United States, noted for his ongoing discussions with Iran.

Concept

AIℹ️
Artificial Intelligence, a sector driving recent investment and contributing to the rise in the electronics group.
SPP
Small Power Producer, a category of power plants recommended in the anti-oil & reopening theme.

Policy

Thailand Plus(ไทยพลัส)
A domestic government initiative expected to stimulate spending and circulate money within the economy.

Timeline

Q2/2026(2/2026)
Referencing the second quarter of the year 2026 for earnings growth expectations.
second half of 2026(ครึ่งหลังปี 2026)
The latter half of the year 2026, for which positive earnings momentum is anticipated.

Index

SET50
An index of the 50 largest companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, with potential for short covering.