SCB Forecasts 2% Thai GDP Growth in 2026 Amid Fragility

MGR Online•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC forecasts the Thai economy to grow by 2% in 2026, warning of a K-shaped recovery and fragile domestic purchasing power.

•SCB EIC predicts the global economy will grow by 2.5% in 2026, driven by AI infrastructure and electronics.
•The Thai economy is projected to expand by 2% in 2026 and slow slightly to 1.9% in 2027.
•Thai growth is concentrated in large businesses and technology sectors such as AI, Data Centers, and electronics.
•Average Thai household income in 2025 decreased for the first time in 6 years according to the National Statistical Office.

•SCB EIC projects the global economy to grow by 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027, and grew by 2.8% in 2025.
•SCB EIC estimates the Thai economy will expand by 2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
•Thai economic growth in 2026 is supported by government measures, exports, and private investment.
•SCB EIC warns that Thai growth is K-shaped, concentrating in large businesses and AI-related industries while broad-based income remains limited.
•National Statistical Office data shows average Thai household income in 2025 fell for the first time in 6 years.
•SCB EIC expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain policy interest rates throughout 2026 to balance inflation and uneven recovery.
•Geopolitical risks and trade wars are identified as factors affecting energy prices, production costs, and global financial market volatility.
•The Thai labor market is described as fragile, with an increase in business closures and a decrease in new business openings.

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SCB EIC

The economic and business research center of Siam Commercial Bank that provides economic forecasts and analysis.

SCB WEALTH

A unit that organized the Wealth Community activity under the theme Thailand Half-Year Outlook 2026.

MPC(กนง.)

The Monetary Policy Committee responsible for setting policy interest rates in Thailand.

Fed

The central bank of the United States expected to maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% throughout the year.

ECB

The European Central Bank that may raise interest rates once in September.

The Bank of Japan which is likely to maintain interest rates at 1%.

National Statistical Office(สำนักงานสถิติแห่งชาติ)ℹ️

The agency providing survey data on Thai household income.

Dr. Punyawat Srising(ดร.ปุณยวัจน์ ศรีสิงห์)

Senior Economist at SCB EIC.

Emergency Decree on 400 Billion Baht Loan(พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A legal framework providing economic stimulus measures, including the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure.

Thai Chuay Thai Plus Measure(มาตรการไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

A government economic stimulus measure under the 400 billion baht loan decree.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country with high demand for AI technology imports and an importer of Chinese goods.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country whose exports to the USA contracted but expanded into the ASEAN region.

ASEAN(อาเซียน)ℹ️

A region serving as a production base for technology and a target market for Chinese exports.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region with high uncertainty and conflict affecting crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.