SCB EIC: Thai Economy 2026 Growth Uneven at 2%

Khaosod•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC projects the Thai economy to grow by 2% in 2026, characterized by a K-shaped recovery with growth concentrated in large businesses and technology sectors.

•SCB EIC predicts Thai economic growth of 2% in 2026 and a slowdown to 1.9% in 2027.
•Thai household income in 2025 decreased for the first time in 6 years.
•Economic growth is concentrated in AI, Data Center, and electronics industries, while grassroots purchasing power remains weak.
•The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain policy interest rates throughout 2026.

Overview

•SCB EIC estimates the Thai economy will grow by 2% in 2026 and slow to 1.9% in 2027.
•The Thai economic recovery is described as K-shaped, with growth concentrated in large businesses, AI, Data Centers, and electronics.
•SCB EIC reports that average Thai household income in 2025 fell for the first time in 6 years.
•Low domestic purchasing power is attributed to tight credit and a fragile labor market with more business closures than openings.
•High import reliance on chips and semiconductors in tech sectors limits the added value and employment gains within the Thai economy.
•SCB EIC predicts the US Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% throughout 2026 if inflation does not rise significantly.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep policy interest rates steady throughout 2026 to balance inflation and uneven recovery.
•Tourism and agriculture face challenges from high travel costs, regional competition, and volatile weather.

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Key Entities

Organization

SCB EIC

Economic intelligence center of Siam Commercial Bank that provides economic forecasts and analysis.

SCB WEALTH

An entity that organized the Wealth Community event for wealth clients.

Federal Reserve (Fed)(ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ (Fed))

The central bank of the United States.

European Central Bank (ECB)(ธนาคารกลางยุโรป (ECB))ℹ️

The central bank for the Eurozone.

Bank of Japan (BoJ)(ธนาคารกลางญี่ปุ่น (BoJ))

The central bank of Japan.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)(คณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน (กนง.))

The body responsible for setting Thailand's policy interest rates.

Person

Punyawaj Srising(ปุณยวัจน์ ศรีสิงห์)

Senior Economist at SCB EIC.

Law

400 Billion Baht Loan Decree(พ.ร.ก.กู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A law providing funds for economic stimulus measures including Thai Chuay Thai Plus.

Place

ASEAN(อาเซียน)ℹ️

A regional bloc where China is expanding markets and companies are relocating production bases.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region experiencing war that creates geopolitical risks for energy prices.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

A strategic waterway for crude oil transport experiencing slow recovery.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country with high demand for technology imports and AI supply chains.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country expanding its markets into ASEAN to offset reduced exports to the USA.