SCB EIC Revises Thai GDP Growth Forecasts for 2026-2027

Prachachat•Economy•10h ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC has revised upward its Thai economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, while warning of structural issues and uneven recovery.

•SCB EIC raised the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% and the 2027 forecast to 2.1%.
•Growth is supported by electronic exports, foreign direct investment in digital and technology, and government budget spending.
•Yannyong Thaicharoen highlights a K-shaped recovery that concentrates benefits in specific industries rather than SMEs and workers.

•SCB EIC adjusted the 2026 Thai economic growth projection to 2.2% from an initial 2%.
•SCB EIC adjusted the 2027 Thai economic growth projection to 2.1% from an initial 1.9%.
•Growth is driven by electronic exports, government budget disbursements, and foreign direct investment in digital and technology aligned with the global AI cycle.
•Yannyong Thaicharoen stated that the recovery is K-Shaped and not widespread, clustering in certain industries.
•Yannyong Thaicharoen noted that the Thai economy faces accumulated structural problems, including household debt, an aging society, and inequality.
•Yannyong Thaicharoen cited a low total investment proportion relative to GDP at only 22%.
•Yannyong Thaicharoen emphasized the need for economic transformation to create quality growth that sustainably benefits SMEs and laborers.

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Yannyong Thaicharoen

"The economic picture should not be viewed only by whether the growth level will reach 2% or not."

ภาพเศรษฐกิจไม่ควรมองแค่ระดับการเติบโตว่าจะโต 2% หรือไม่

SCB EIC(ศูนย์วิจัยเศรษฐกิจและธุรกิจ ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์)

The economic and business research center of Siam Commercial Bank that provides economic forecasts for Thailand.

Yannyong Thaicharoen(ดร.ยรรยง ไทยเจริญ)

Chief Executive Officer of the Economic Research and Sustainability division at SCB EIC.