SCB EIC Raises Thai GDP Forecast to 2.2%

MGR Online•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC has increased the Thai economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.2% and for 2027 to 2.1% driven by digital and electronics sectors.

•SCB EIC revised Thai GDP estimates upward to 2.2% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027.
•Economic growth is primarily driven by private investment and exports in digital and electronics industries linked to global AI investment cycles.
•Recovery is characterized as K-shaped, with benefits concentrated among large entrepreneurs and foreign companies.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 1% throughout the year.

•SCB EIC adjusted the Thai economy forecast for 2026 to 2.2% from 2.0%, and for 2027 to 2.1% from 1.9%.
•Private investment has accelerated for five consecutive quarters, specifically in digital infrastructure, Data centers, and electronics.
•High dependence on imports of raw materials and capital goods for digital sectors has led to a deterioration in the trade balance and current account.
•The Thai government intends to reduce electricity costs for September - December 2026 to 3.86 baht per unit from 3.95 baht per unit.
•The Oil Fuel Fund's accumulated deficit reached 75,562 million baht as of August 16.
•SCB EIC predicts the general inflation rate for 2026 will decrease to 1.7% from the previous 2.6%, and slow further to 0.8% in 2027.
•Risks to the Thai economy include tensions in the Middle East, US import tariffs regarding excess capacity and transshipment, and Super El Nino.
•SCB EIC maintains the 2026 global economic growth estimate at 2.5%.

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SCB EIC

An economic intelligence center that provides GDP forecasts and economic analysis for Thailand and the global economy.

BOI

An organization whose investment promotion values reflect high levels of investment in digital infrastructure and electronics.

Monetary Policy Committee(กนง.)

The body expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 1% due to reduced inflation pressure and uneven recovery.

Oil Fuel Fund(กองทุนน้ำมันเชื้อเพลิง)

A fund that compensates for high oil prices and had an accumulated deficit of 75,562 million baht as of August 16.

EGAT, MEA, and PEA(กฟผ. กฟน. และ กฟภ.)

Electricity authority groups whose excess funds will be used to subsidize electricity costs.

ECB

A central bank that may raise interest rates once due to high inflation.

Fed

A central bank expected to maintain interest rates throughout the year.

A central bank expected to maintain interest rates throughout the year.

400 Billion Baht Emergency Decree(พ.ร.ก. 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A decree providing funds to support the economy, including energy transition projects and public assistance.

Thai Chuay Thai(ไทยช่วยไทย)

A government project intended to support purchasing power in the third quarter.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country whose import tariffs and trade policies regarding excess capacity and forced labor impact the global economy.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region where conflicts create risks for energy prices and the Thai economy.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A country involved in negotiations with the USA regarding Middle East tensions.