SCB EIC Predicts 2.2% Thai GDP Growth in 2026

Matichon•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC forecasts Thai economic growth to slow to 2.2% in 2026 amid K-shaped recovery and several risk factors.

•SCB EIC projects Thai GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
•Economic growth is driven by the global AI investment cycle, electronics exports, and foreign direct investment in digital and technology.
•The recovery is characterized as K-shaped, with benefits concentrated in export-linked industries while households and SMEs remain fragile.
•Four major risk factors include US import tariffs, Super El Niño, geopolitical volatility, and household/SME fragility.

•SCB EIC projects the Thai economy will expand by 2.2% in 2026, which is lower than the approximately 2.4% growth in 2025.
•SCB EIC forecasts the Thai economy will expand by 2.1% in 2027.
•Global AI investment cycles are driving electronics exports and foreign direct investment in digital and technology sectors.
•Yanyong Thaicharoen warns that the K-shaped recovery concentrates benefits in export-linked businesses while many households and SMEs face income and debt vulnerability.
•Yanyong Thaicharoen suggests three areas for sustainable growth: upgrading new growth engines via FDI, linking FDI to Thai SMEs, and assisting lagging groups during the transition.
•Thai economy faces risks from US import tariffs on excess capacity and transshipment, Super El Niño affecting agriculture, geopolitical volatility, and household/SME fragility.
•Yanyong Thaicharoen expects the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain low interest rates at 1% until the end of 2027.
•The first 200 billion baht of the 400 billion baht loan decree will support economic activity and cost of living this year, while the remaining 200 billion baht for energy transition will be disbursed more in 2027.

Full article content is available on the original source.

Yanyong Thaicharoen

"Although the Thai economy is growing better, the recovery has a clearer K-shaped characteristic in many dimensions."

แม้เศรษฐกิจไทยจะเติบโตได้ดีขึ้น แต่การฟื้นตัวมีลักษณะ K-shaped ชัดเจนขึ้นในหลายมิติ

Yanyong Thaicharoen(ยรรยง ไทยเจริญ)

Chief Executive Officer of the Economic Research and Sustainability division at SCB EIC.

SCB EIC(ศูนย์วิจัยเศรษฐกิจและธุรกิจ ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์)

The economic research center of Siam Commercial Bank.

Monetary Policy Committee(คณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน)

The body expected to keep interest rates at 1% until the end of 2027.

400 Billion Baht Loan Decree(พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A decree providing loans to support economic activities and energy transition.

Thai Chuay Thai Plus(ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

A government stimulation measure mentioned as part of domestic demand support.

United States(สหรัฐ)ℹ️

A country whose import tax measures pose a risk to the Thai economy.