SCB EIC Forecasts Thai GDP 2027 to Slow to 1.9%

Khaosod•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC predicts Thailand's GDP growth will slow to 1.9% in 2027 due to the expiration of government stimulus and a lack of new economic drivers.

•SCB EIC forecasts Thai GDP growth at 2% in 2026 and slowing to 1.9% in 2027.
•The global economy is projected to grow 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, driven by AI and electronics.
•Thai household income in 2025 decreased for the first time in 6 years according to the National Statistical Office.
•SCB EIC expects the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee to maintain interest rates throughout 2026.

•SCB EIC projects the global economy will expand by 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.
•SCB EIC estimates Thailand's GDP will grow by 2% in 2026 and slow to 1.9% in 2027.
•The projected slowdown in 2027 is attributed to the gradual expiration of government support measures and a lack of new widespread economic drivers.
•Growth in Thailand is characterized as K-shaped, with expansion concentrated in large businesses and technology-related industries such as AI and data centers.
•Thai household income in 2025 declined for the first time in 6 years, reflecting weak domestic purchasing power and tight credit access.
•Punyawat Srising of SCB EIC noted that geopolitical risks and trade wars remain critical factors affecting energy prices and supply chains.
•SCB EIC expects the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% throughout the year.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged throughout 2026 to balance inflation and fragile recovery.

Full article content is available on the original source.

SCB EIC

The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank that provides economic forecasts and analysis.

SCB WEALTH

The entity that organized the Wealth Community activity for wealth clients.

Federal Reserve(Fed)ℹ️

The central bank of the United States projected to maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75%.

European Central Bank(ECB)ℹ️

The central bank of Europe that may raise interest rates once in September to 2.50%.

Bank of Japan(BoJ)ℹ️

The central bank of Japan likely to maintain interest rates at 1%.

Monetary Policy Committee(กนง.)

The committee responsible for setting the policy interest rate in Thailand.

Siam Commercial Bank(ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์)ℹ️

The banking institution where SCB EIC is situated.

National Statistical Office(สำนักงานสถิติแห่งชาติ)ℹ️

The government agency that provided data on the decline of Thai household income in 2025.

Punyawat Srising(ปุณยวัจน์ ศรีสิงห์)

Senior Economist at SCB EIC, Siam Commercial Bank.

Emergency Decree on 400 Billion Baht Loan(พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

The legal framework providing economic stimulus measures including the Thai Chuay Thai Plus program.

Thai Chuay Thai Plus Measure(มาตรการไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

An economic stimulus measure under the 400 billion baht loan decree supporting the Thai economy.

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A major importer of technology and AI supply chain goods and a country implementing import tax measures.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country expanding its export markets into the ASEAN region due to contraction in exports to the US.

ASEAN(อาเซียน)ℹ️

A regional bloc becoming a destination for relocated production bases and Chinese exports.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region with high uncertainty affecting crude oil transportation and global energy costs.