SCB EIC Forecasts Thai Economy Growth 2026-2027

MGR Online•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC forecasts Thai economic growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, driven by AI investment and exports despite a widening K-shaped recovery.

•SCB EIC predicts Thai economy growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
•Economic growth is driven by the global AI investment cycle, electronics exports, and foreign direct investment in digital and technology.
•The recovery is K-shaped, with benefits concentrated in large electronics and technology firms while SMEs and low-income households remain vulnerable.
•Major risk factors include US trade barriers, Middle East conflicts, and Super El Niño.

•SCB EIC estimates the Thai economy will expand by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
•Growth is driven by the global AI investment cycle, electronics exports, and foreign direct investment in digital and technology industries.
•The recovery is characterized as K-shaped because benefits are concentrated in export-linked industries while SMEs and households face income and debt fragility.
•SCB EIC identifies US import tariffs, Middle East conflicts, and Super El Niño as key risks that could pressure costs, income, and consumption.
•The second 200 billion baht portion of the emergency loan decree related to energy transition will be gradually disbursed into the economy in 2027.
•SCB EIC assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee will likely maintain the policy interest rate at 1% until the end of 2027.
•High global bond yields have led to higher Thai government bond yields, affecting borrowing costs for the public and private sectors.
•SCB EIC suggests transitioning to a broad-based recovery by upgrading growth engines, linking foreign direct investment to Thai SMEs, and supporting vulnerable groups.

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SCB EIC(ศูนย์วิจัยเศรษฐกิจและธุรกิจ ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์)

An economic research center that provides forecasts and analysis on the Thai and global economy.

Monetary Policy Committee(กนง.)

The body responsible for setting the policy interest rate in Thailand.

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country whose trade barriers and AI usage impact the Thai and global economy.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country accelerating AI use in the industrial sector to maintain manufacturing and export competitiveness.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region where conflicts are causing volatility in global energy prices.

Emergency Loan Decree for 400 Billion Baht(พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน 4 แสนล้านบาท)

A government decree providing funds to support economic activity and energy transition.