SCB EIC forecasts 2.2% GDP growth for 2026

Prachachat•Economy•20h ago

Reader Briefing

SCB EIC has revised the 2026 Thai economic growth forecast upward to 2.2% while warning of a K-shaped recovery and purchasing power fragility.

•SCB EIC increased the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 2.2%.
•Economic recovery is characterized as K-shaped, with large businesses growing faster than SMEs.
•Three primary risk factors include Middle East conflict, trade wars, and El Niño.
•SCB EIC suggests the government implement a targeted "Thai Help Thai Plus" measure for vulnerable groups.

•SCB EIC adjusted the Thai economic growth forecast for the year 2026 to 2.2%, up from the previous estimate of 2%.
•The growth is driven by technology product exports, specifically in the electronics sector benefiting from the AI cycle.
•The recovery is described by Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen as K-shaped, meaning growth is concentrated and inequality is increasing.
•High imports of raw materials in high-tech sectors have limited the positive impact on employment.
•SCB EIC identifies three risk factors: Middle East wars, trade wars, and El Niño.
•Purchasing power and spending by the private and public sectors remain sluggish.
•The government is expected to extend the "Thai Help Thai" stimulus measure into the fourth quarter.
•SCB EIC recommends the government transition to a "Thai Help Thai Plus" approach to provide targeted assistance to vulnerable groups.

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SCB EIC

The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank that provides economic forecasts and research.

Siam Commercial Bank(ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์)ℹ️

The bank associated with SCB EIC.

Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen(ดร.ยรรยง ไทยเจริญ)

Chief Executive Officer of Economic Research and Sustainability at SCB EIC.

Thai Help Thai(ไทยช่วยไทย)

A government economic stimulus measure.

Thai Help Thai Plus(ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

A proposed targeted assistance measure for vulnerable groups suggested by SCB EIC.