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Risks High in 2026, Thai Econ. to Grow 1.8%, Govt. Stability Key

Risks High in 2026, Thai Econ. to Grow 1.8%, Govt. Stability Key

MGR Online•Economy•3h ago

Reader Briefing

Krungthai COMPASS forecasts Thailand's economy to grow 1.8% in 2026 amidst high risk factors, including geopolitical issues and US trade policies, while anticipating that a stable new government will bolster investor confidence.

  • •Thailand's economy is projected to grow at 1.8% in 2026, with risks from geopolitical tensions and US trade policies.
  • •The export sector faces uncertainty, particularly to the US, due to fluctuating tax measures and tariffs.
  • •Investor confidence is expected to improve with the establishment of a stable new government and efficient budget allocation for the fiscal year 2027.
  • •Private investment showed strong growth in 2025, particularly in digital and electronics industries.

Overview

  • •Q4 2025 economic growth reached 2.5% YoY, with a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter increase.
  • •Overall economic growth for 2025 was reported at 2.4%.
  • •In 2025, investment promotion applications totaled over 1.35 trillion THB from 2,421 projects, a 66% increase.
  • •The digital industry saw 184% growth in investment promotion in 2025.
  • •The electrical appliance and electronics industry saw 20% growth in investment promotion in 2025.
  • •Krungthai COMPASS estimates Thailand's economy will grow by 1.8% in 2026.
  • •US tariff measures and geopolitical risks are identified as significant headwinds for the global economy.
  • •Households and SMEs remain in a vulnerable financial state.

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Key Entities

Organization

Krungthai Bank(KTB)ℹ️
A leading Thai bank and financial services provider that issues economic forecasts.
Krungthai COMPASS
A research unit of Krungthai Bank that provides economic analysis and forecasts for Thailand.
National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(สภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ)ℹ️
A Thai government agency responsible for economic analysis and national development planning.

Place

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️
A major trading partner for Thailand, whose trade policies are impacting Thai exports.

Law

Reciprocal tariff
A type of trade tariff potentially impacting US presidential authority, mentioned in relation to US trade policy.
Sectoral tariff (Section 232)
A US trade measure that affects at least 9 product groups, including semiconductors, impacting Thai exports.

Policy

Thailand FastPass
A government initiative aimed at accelerating investment in targeted businesses.
Reinvent Thailand
A government initiative designed to stimulate investment in 6 key business sectors.