NESDC: 2026 Economy to Grow 1.5-2.5% on State Investment, Tourism Weak

Matichon•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Thailand's economy is projected to expand by 1.5-2.5% in 2026, primarily fueled by government and private investment, alongside a recovering tourism sector, despite a slowdown from the previous year.

•The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projects Thailand's GDP to grow between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026, with a central estimate of 2.0%.
•Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 2.4%, which is a slowdown from 2.9% in 2024, with Q4 2025 performance exceeding expectations at 2.5%.
•Key drivers for 2026 include continued private consumption and investment, increased government spending, tourism recovery, and favorable agricultural conditions.
•Tourism, while expected to recover in 2026, was a weak point in 2025, showing a contraction in services.

Overview

•The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) announced that Thailand's GDP in 2025 expanded by 2.4%.
•Thailand's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by 2.5%, exceeding previous estimates due to accelerated investment and construction.
•Government investment saw a significant increase of 13.3% in Q4 2025, contributing to overall economic expansion.
•The tourism services sector contracted by 6.9% in Q4 2025, leading to moderate overall export growth of goods and services.
•NESDC forecasts the Thai economy to expand between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026, with a central estimate of 2.0%.
•Private consumption and investment are expected to grow by 2.1% and 1.9% respectively in 2026.
•Foreign tourist receipts in 2026 are projected to reach 1.65 trillion baht, an increase from 1.47 trillion baht in 2025.
•NESDC reported an unemployment rate of 0.81% and an average inflation rate of -0.1% for 2025.

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Key Entities

Organization

NESDC(สภาพัฒน์)ℹ️

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, responsible for economic assessments and projections.

Person

Danucha Pichayanan(นายดนุชา พิชยนันท์)ℹ️

Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(เลขาธิการสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ (สศช.))

Title held by Danucha Pichayanan, responsible for the official announcements and analyses of Thailand's economic performance and outlook.