MPC Meeting: Policy Rate Expected to Hold at 1%

Thansettakij•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Research institutes and private sector representatives expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% amid an uneven K-shaped economic recovery.

•Krungsri Research and Kasikorn Research Center expect the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the policy rate at 1.00%.
•Commercial bank loans grew by 2.0% in Q2/2026, driven by large businesses, while SME loans contracted by 4.6%.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on August 26, 2026.
•Visith Limluecha of the Thai Chamber of Commerce emphasizes the severe contraction of consumer purchasing power.

Overview

•Krungsri Research reported commercial bank loans expanded 2.0% in Q2/2026, with large business loans growing 6.6%.
•Bank of Thailand data shows SME loans contracted 4.6% and consumer loans decreased 0.6%.
•The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio to total loans slightly decreased to 2.82% from 2.85% in the previous quarter.
•Krungsri Research predicts the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the policy rate at 1.00% to support the economy.
•Kasikorn Research Center expects the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the rate at 1.00% during the August 26, 2026 meeting and throughout 2026.
•Kasikorn Research Center describes the Thai economic recovery as a K-shaped Recovery where small businesses and vulnerable groups still face pressure.
•Visith Limluecha states that freezing interest rates helps maintain stability and prevents the economy from worsening.
•Visith Limluecha warns that severe contraction in consumer purchasing power is affecting the entire production sector.

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Source: Thansettakij (Original)

Key Quotes

Visith Limluecha

"The private sector only hopes to maintain or freeze interest rates as they are, without expecting them to be reduced, as the actual situation makes it difficult."

ทางภาคเอกชนคาดหวังเพียงแค่ต้องการให้ประคองหรือตรึงดอกเบี้ยไว้เท่าเดิมก่อน โดยไม่ได้คาดหวังถึงขั้นว่าจะต้องลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยลง เนื่องจากสถานการณ์จริงทำได้ยาก

Key Entities

Organization

Monetary Policy Committee(กนง.)

The committee responsible for setting the policy interest rate.

Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)

A research entity that analyzes bank loans and predicts the Monetary Policy Committee's interest rate decisions.

Bank of Thailand(ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.))ℹ️

The central bank that provides data on SME and consumer loans.

Kasikorn Research Center(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย)

A research entity that predicts the interest rate will remain at 1.00% through 2026 and describes the K-shaped recovery.

Thai Chamber of Commerce(หอการค้าไทย)

The organization where Visith Limluecha serves as Vice Chairman.

Thai Future Food Trade Association(สมาคมการค้าอาหารอนาคตไทย)

The association where Visith Limluecha serves as President.

Than Settakij(ฐานเศรษฐกิจ)

The media outlet to which Visith Limluecha provided information.

Person

Visith Limluecha(วิศิษฐ์ ลิ้มลือชา)

Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and President of the Thai Future Food Trade Association.

Place

United States of America(สหรัฐอเมริกา)ℹ️

The country whose tax policies affect Thailand's economic recovery signals.