Morgan Stanley Raises Targets for 6 Thai Energy Stocks

Prachachat•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

Morgan Stanley has increased the target prices for six energy stocks, citing a positive outlook on the refining and petrochemical cycles.

•Morgan Stanley raised target prices for SPRC, TOP, PTTGC, BCP, PTT, and OR.
•The adjustments reflect a positive view of the global refining industry structure, referred to as the Golden Age of Refining.
•SPRC saw the highest target price increase at 52.7%, moving from 12.90 baht to 19.70 baht.

•Morgan Stanley views the global refining industry as being in a Golden Age of Refining because oil product demand is growing faster than new global refining capacity.
•Morgan Stanley estimates global oil product demand will increase by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day from 2025-2028, while new refining capacity will increase by less than 1.5 million barrels per day.
•Global refined product supply is tightening due to impacts on Russian refining capacity, closures of some refineries in Japan and OECD countries, and export restrictions for independent refineries in China.
•Morgan Stanley estimates that a refinery of approximately 400,000 barrels per day requires an investment of 12 billion US dollars with an average payback period of 16 years.
•Morgan Stanley forecasts refining margins to remain 20-25% above the mid-cycle average, estimating 14.3 dollars per barrel in 2026, 12 dollars in 2027, and 10.5 dollars in 2028.
•Morgan Stanley increased the target price of SPRC to 19.70 baht, TOP to 87 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht, PTT to 44.90 baht, and OR to 14.60 baht.
•SPRC reported refining margins of 23.7 dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026.
•TOP reported a net profit of approximately 8.3 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026.

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Morgan Stanley(มอร์แกน สแตนลีย์)ℹ️

A financial institution that adjusted target prices for energy stocks and provided industry outlooks.

SPRC

An energy company whose target price was increased from 12.90 baht to 19.70 baht.

TOP

An energy company whose target price was increased from 70 baht to 87 baht.

PTTGC

An energy company whose target price was increased from 43 baht to 59 baht.

BCP

An energy company whose target price was increased from 51 baht to 65.70 baht.

PTT

An energy company whose target price was increased from 39.40 baht to 44.90 baht.

An energy company whose target price was increased from 14.30 baht to 14.60 baht.

A group of countries where some refineries have closed.

Russia(รัสเซีย)ℹ️

A country whose refining capacity of approximately 2-3 million barrels per day was affected.

Japan(ญี่ปุ่น)ℹ️

A country where some refineries have closed.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country with export restrictions on refined oil products from independent refineries.