Loan Growth Forecast to Rebound in 2026 After Q4/2025 Contraction

Post Today•Economy•2h ago

Reader Briefing

Thai banking sector anticipates loan growth in 2026 after a year of contraction, driven by anticipated economic recovery.

•Thai commercial banks experienced a 1.1% contraction in loans during Q4/2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of decline.
•SME loans have been particularly affected, contracting for 14 consecutive quarters.
•The Bank of Thailand (BOT) forecasts loan growth to stabilize or modestly increase between 1.6-2% in 2026.
•Improvements in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are noted, attributed to debt restructuring and responsible lending initiatives.

Overview

•Commercial bank loans (including interbank) in Q4/2025 contracted by 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
•The contraction in Q4/2025 loans was due to SMEs loans and consumer loans shrinking, along with a slight decrease in large corporate loans due to lower demand based on economic conditions.
•NPLs (Stage 3) decreased to 5.36 hundred billion baht in Q4/2025 due to debt repayments and loan quality management, bringing the NPL ratio to 2.84%.
•Loans with a significant increase in credit risk (Stage 2) decreased to 7.07% due to debt repayment under debt restructuring conditions.
•Net interest income for 2025 decreased compared to the previous year, mainly due to interest rate reductions for borrowers.
•Overall loans for the entire year 2025 contracted by 1.1%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly contraction.
•SMEs loans have contracted for 14 consecutive quarters.
•In 2026, the BOT forecasts loans to stabilize or expand slightly by approximately 1.6-2% following economic recovery.

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Key Quotes

สุโชติ เปี่ยมชล

"Overall loans for the entire year 2025 contracted by 1.1%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly contraction, particularly SMEs loans which have contracted for 14 consecutive quarters. As for the outlook in 2026, the BOT forecasts loans to stabilize or begin to expand slightly by approximately 1.6-2% following economic recovery."

ภาพรวมสินเชื่อทั้งปี 2025 หดตัว 1.1% ซึ่งเป็นการหดตัวต่อเนื่องกัน 6 ไตรมาส โดยเฉพาะสินเชื่อ SMEs ที่หดตัวติดต่อกันยาวนานถึง 14 ไตรมาส ส่วนแนวโน้มปี 2026 ธปท. คาดการณ์ว่าสินเชื่อจะทรงตัว หรือเริ่มกลับมาขยายตัวได้เล็กน้อยประมาณ 1.6-2% ตามการฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจ

Key Entities

Organization

Bank of Thailand(ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย)ℹ️

The central bank of Thailand, which released data on commercial banks and forecasts future loan growth.

Person

Somchai Lertlarpwasin(นายสมชาย เลิศลาภวศิน)

Assistant Governor, Financial Institutions Supervision Group at the Bank of Thailand.

Suchote Piamchol(นายสุโชติ เปี่ยมชล)

Senior Director, Financial Institutions Model Audit and Risk Analysis Department at the Bank of Thailand.