Krungsri Research raises 2026 Thai GDP forecast to 2.1%

Thansettakij•Economy•22d ago

Reader Briefing

Krungsri Research has revised the 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast upward to 2.1% from 1.9% due to private investment and export recovery.

•Krungsri Research increased the 2026 economic growth estimate to 2.1%.
•Growth is supported by private sector investment, exports, and government measures.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the interest rate at 1.00% throughout 2026.
•Thai economy faces risks from geopolitical tensions, US trade barriers, and El Nino.

•Krungsri Research adjusted the 2026 Thai economic growth forecast to 2.1%, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%.
•The adjustment reflects better-than-expected growth in the second quarter and momentum from private investment and exports.
•The Thailand FastPass project and energy transition measures are identified as factors supporting investment.
•Krungsri Research warns that high import proportions for solar cells and EV components may limit the positive impact of energy measures.
•The Thai Thiew Thai Plus measure at the end of the year has a budget of 3.50 billion baht, which is lower than the Thai Chuay Thai Plus budget of 120 billion baht from June to September.
•Krungsri Research predicts the Monetary Policy Committee will keep the policy interest rate at 1.00% per year for the remainder of 2026.
•The Thai economy faces four major risks: geopolitical tensions, US trade barrier uncertainties, fiscal constraints, and structural problems.
•Structural issues include declining manufacturing competitiveness, high household debt, a complete aging society, and a shrinking labor force.

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Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)

The research arm that provides economic forecasts and analysis for the Thai economy.

MPC(กนง.)

The Monetary Policy Committee expected to maintain interest rates at 1.00% throughout 2026.

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited(ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา จำกัด(มหาชน))

The financial institution where Dr. Pimnara Hirunkasi serves as a research executive.

BOI

The agency providing investment promotion for which application values support private investment.

Dr. Pimnara Hirunkasi(ดร.พิมพ์นารา หิรัญกสิ)

Head of Economic Research Team and Research Executive at Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited.

Thailand FastPass

A government project designed to accelerate actual investment.

Thai Thiew Thai Plus(ไทยเที่ยวไทยพลัส)

A year-end measure with a budget of 3.50 billion baht.

Thai Chuay Thai Plus(ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

A measure from June to September with a budget of 120 billion baht.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

The country whose trade barrier measures and tariffs pose a risk to Thai exports.