Krungsri Research Cuts Thai GDP to 1.9% in 2026 Due to Geopolitics & US Policy

Khaosod•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Krungsri Research has revised down its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth in 2026 to 1.9%, citing significant risks from geopolitics, US trade policy uncertainty, and domestic structural constraints.

•Krungsri Research forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow by 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025.
•Key risks include geopolitical conflicts, US trade policy uncertainty, and domestic structural limitations.
•Private consumption is expected to grow at its lowest rate in four years due to rising living costs and low household income growth.
•The tourism sector's recovery is delayed, with foreign tourist numbers projected to decline for the second consecutive year.
•Exports are expected to slow down due to weakening global demand and potential US import tariff increases.

Overview

•Krungsri Research forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow by 1.9% in 2026, a decrease from 2.4% in 2025, due to ongoing pressures.
•Geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty in US trade policy, and domestic structural constraints are identified as key factors weakening economic momentum.
•Private consumption is projected to grow at its slowest pace in four years, exacerbated by rising living costs and low household income growth.
•The tourism sector faces a second consecutive year of declining foreign tourist numbers, attributed to higher travel costs and safety concerns.
•Exports are expected to decelerate throughout the remainder of the year owing to weakening global demand and potential escalations in US import tariffs.
•Krungsri Research noted that despite anticipated support from government stimulus measures in the latter half of the year, overall economic drivers remain weak.
•The Thai economy could experience slower growth than anticipated if Middle East conflicts escalate or if trade protectionist measures intensify.
•The Research unit of Krungsri Bank (Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited) is the source of this economic analysis and forecast.

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Key Quotes

Pimnarah Hirankas

"Although the Thai economy grew better than expected in Q1 this year, and economic stimulus measures may help support growth from mid-year onwards, the Thai economy still faces risks from both external factors and domestic structural limitations going forward."

แม้เศรษฐกิจไทยในไตรมาสแรกของปีนี้จะเติบโตดีกว่าคาด และมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจอาจช่วยพยุงการเติบโตตั้งแต่ช่วงกลางปีเป็นต้นไป แต่ในระยะข้างหน้า เศรษฐกิจไทยยังเผชิญความเสี่ยงจากทั้งปัจจัยภายนอกและข้อจำกัดเชิงโครงสร้างภายในประเทศ

Key Entities

Organization

Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)ℹ️

The economic research division of Bank of Ayudhya, responsible for forecasting Thailand's GDP.

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited(ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา จำกัด (มหาชน))ℹ️

The parent financial institution of Krungsri Research, providing the economic forecasts.

Board of Investment(BOI)ℹ️

Organization whose investment promotion value is a supporting factor for private sector investment in Thailand.

Person

Pimnarah Hirankas(นางสาวพิมพ์นารา หิรัญกสิ)

Head of Economic Research and Executive Vice President of the Research Department at Bank of Ayudhya.