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Krungsri Research: 2026 GDP to grow 1.9%, external risks & structural limits cited.

Krungsri Research: 2026 GDP to grow 1.9%, external risks & structural limits cited.

MGR Online•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Krungsri Research forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 1.9% for 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025, attributing the slowdown to external geopolitical tensions, US trade policy uncertainties, and domestic structural constraints.

  • •Krungsri Research predicts Thailand's GDP will grow 1.9% in 2026, a slowdown from 2.4% in 2025.
  • •Key risks include geopolitical conflicts, US trade policy uncertainty, and domestic structural limitations.
  • •Private consumption is expected to grow at its lowest rate in four years due to rising living costs and stagnant household income.
  • •The tourism sector's recovery remains slow, with a projected second consecutive year of decline in foreign tourist numbers.
  • •Exports are expected to decelerate due to weakening global demand and potential US import tariff increases.
  • •The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% for the rest of the year to support economic growth.

Overview

  • •Krungsri Research forecasts Thailand's GDP growth for 2026 to be 1.9%, a slowdown from 2.4% in 2025.
  • •Thailand's GDP growth is projected at 1.9% in 2026.
  • •Thai GDP growth is expected to slow due to external geopolitical tensions, US trade policy uncertainties, and domestic structural constraints.
  • •Private consumption is projected to grow at its lowest rate in four years due to increased living costs and low household income growth.
  • •The tourism sector is expected to see a second consecutive year of declining foreign tourist numbers, resulting in a prolonged recovery.
  • •Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to prolonged energy crises and supply chain disruptions, impacting Thailand's economy.
  • •The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to keep the policy interest rate at 1.00% for the remainder of the year to support economic growth.
  • •Domestic structural limitations, such as declining industrial competitiveness and high household debt, may cause Thailand to be more affected by global risks than other countries.

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Key Quotes

Pimnara Hirankasik
"Although Thailand's economy grew better than expected in the first quarter and economic stimulus measures may help support growth from mid-year onwards, going forward, the Thai economy still faces risks from both external factors and domestic structural limitations."
แม้เศรษฐกิจไทยในไตรมาสแรกของปีนี้จะเติบโตดีกว่าคาด และมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจอาจช่วยพยุงการเติบโตตั้งแต่ช่วงกลางปีเป็นต้นไป แต่ในระยะข้างหน้า เศรษฐกิจไทยยังเผชิญความเสี่ยงจากทั้งปัจจัยภายนอกและข้อจำกัดเชิงโครงสร้างภายในประเทศ

Key Entities

Organization

Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)ℹ️
The research division of Krungsri Bank that issued a GDP growth forecast for Thailand.
Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited(ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา จำกัด (มหาชน))ℹ️
The parent organization of Krungsri Research, a major financial institution in Thailand.
BAYℹ️
Abbreviation for Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited.
BOIℹ️
The Board of Investment, which has seen an increase in investment promotion applications.
Monetary Policy Committee(คณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน)
The committee responsible for setting Thailand's policy interest rate.
MPC(กนง.)
Abbreviation for the Monetary Policy Committee.

Person

Pimnara Hirankasik(นางสาวพิมพ์นารา หิรัญกสิ)
Head of Economic Research at Krungsri Research and Executive Vice President of the Research Division at Krungsri Bank.

Law

Emergency Decree for Borrowing(พ.ร.ก. กู้เงินฯ)
A government decree for borrowing to address the energy crisis, providing support to the economy.