Krungsri raises 2026 Thai GDP forecast to 2.1%

MGR Online•Economy•7d ago

Reader Briefing

Krungsri Research has increased its 2026 Thai economic growth forecast to 2.1% from 1.9% due to private investment and government measures.

•Krungsri Research revised the 2026 GDP growth estimate upward to 2.1%.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% throughout 2026.
•Growth drivers include private sector investment, exports related to AI and electronics, and the Thailand FastPass project.
•Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, US trade barriers, and El Nino.

•Krungsri Research adjusted the 2026 economic growth projection to 2.1% from the previous estimate of 1.9%.
•The Thai economy in the second quarter of 2026 expanded by 1.9% compared to the same period of the previous year.
•Growth in the second quarter of 2026 was driven by export expansion, private sector investment, and inventory accumulation.
•The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the policy interest rate at 1.00% per year throughout 2026.
•The Thailand FastPass project is expected to accelerate actual investment in the second half of the year.
•The US reported Thailand as a Tier 2 country in The Great Transshipment Scam report, increasing the risk of stricter export inspections and additional import taxes.
•El Nino may negatively impact agricultural yields and income, putting pressure on overall purchasing power.
•Private consumption is expected to slow in the final quarter of the year as the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure has a budget of 3.50 billion baht, which is lower than the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure.

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Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)

An economic research unit that provides GDP forecasts and economic analysis for Thailand.

Monetary Policy Committee(กนง.)

The body responsible for setting and maintaining the policy interest rate.

BOI

An organization that provides investment promotion and processes investment requests.

Bank of Ayudhya (BAY)(ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา (BAY))

The financial institution where Pimnara Hirunkasi serves as a research executive.

Thailand FastPass

An economic policy project designed to accelerate actual investment.

Thai Tiew Thai Plus(ไทยเที่ยวไทยพลัส)

A government measure with a 3.50 billion baht budget intended to support domestic tourism.

Thai Chuay Thai Plus(ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส)

A government measure operating from June to September with a budget of 120 billion baht.

Pimnara Hirunkasi(พิมพ์นารา หิรัญกสิ)

Head of Economic Research and Research Executive at Bank of Ayudhya.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A country implementing trade barriers and import taxes that impact Thai exports.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region where geopolitical tensions are affecting energy costs and Thai tourism.

China(จีน)ℹ️

A country from which tourists are gradually returning to Thailand.

Section 301(มาตรา 301)ℹ️

A US regulation used for collecting import taxes based on issues like excess production capacity.