KKP Pipat: Thai Economy Needs Reform, Not Just State Support

Prachachat•Economy•12h ago

Reader Briefing

Economist Pipat warns Thailand's GDP growth in Q4 2025, while positive, relies on unsustainable government spending and highlights structural economic weaknesses compared to regional peers.

•Thailand's GDP grew 2.5% in Q4 2025, bringing the full-year growth to 2.4%, exceeding market expectations.
•Growth was primarily driven by government spending and private investment, with consumption also contributing.
•Economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai of KKP warns that this growth is short-term and Thailand needs fundamental reforms to remain competitive.
•Neighboring Asian countries showed significantly higher growth rates, indicating Thailand's competitive disadvantage.

Overview

•GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing to a full-year GDP of 2.4% for 2025.
•Government entities accelerated budget disbursement, leading to a 13.3% increase in state investment.
•State construction investment grew by 11.2%, supporting the wider economy.
•Private investment increased by 6.5%, fueled by the import of machinery and equipment.
•Consumption grew by 3.3%, partly due to consumers purchasing EVs before policy measures expired and government support for vulnerable groups.
•Pipat stated that while Thailand may be out of critical condition, it has not yet recovered and requires physical therapy for full potential growth.
•Taiwan grew over 12%, Singapore 6.9%, Vietnam 8%, and Malaysia 6.3% in the same quarter, highlighting Thailand's slower growth.
•Pipat warned that continued reliance on short-term government stimulus is unsustainable due to budget limitations and fiscal discipline plans.

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Source: Prachachat (Original)

Key Quotes

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

"Although we are happy to grow by 2.5%, looking at the broader Asian picture during the same quarter, we see worrying realities."

แม้เราจะดีใจที่โตได้ 2.5% แต่ถ้ามองภาพกว้างในเอเชียช่วงไตรมาสเดียวกัน เราจะเห็นความจริงที่น่ากังวล

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

"Continuing this approach is not feasible because the budget is limited and according to fiscal discipline plans."

ทําท่านี้ไปเรื่อยๆ ไม่ได้ เพราะงบประมาณมีจำกัด และตามแผนวินัยการคลัง

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

"We need "New Engines of Growth" that are not just temporary injections but a major overhaul of the economic structure."

เราต้องการ “เครื่องจักรใหม่” (New Engines of Growth) ที่ไม่ใช่แค่การอัดฉีดชั่วคราว แต่คือการปฏิรูปโครงสร้างเศรษฐกิจครั้งใหญ่

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

"The Minister of Finance said Thailand is out of the ICU, which may be true, but I believe we are definitely not out of the hospital yet."

ท่าน รมว. คลัง บอกว่าไทยออกจาก ICU แล้ว ก็อาจจะจริง แต่ผมว่าเรายังไม่ได้ออกจากโรงพยาบาลแน่ๆ

Key Entities

Person

Pipat KKP(พิพัฒน์ KKP)

Head Economist at KKP, who analyzed Thailand's GDP growth and economic structural issues.

Dr. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai(ดร.พิพัฒน์ เหลืองนฤมิตชัย)

Head Economist of Kingston KKP Financial Group, author of the analysis.

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

Head Economist at KKP, who published his analysis on Facebook.

Minister of Finance(รมว. คลัง)

Minister of Finance, quoted on Thailand's economic recovery status.

Organization

Kingston KKP Financial Group(กลุ่มธุรกิจการเงินเกียรตินาคินภัทร)

Financial business group where Pipat Luengnaruemitchai serves as Head Economist.

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(สภาพัฒน์)ℹ️

Government agency that announced the Q4 GDP figures.