Kasikorn Research: Real Estate 2026 Still Not at Bottom

MGR Online•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

Kasikorn Research Center predicts the 2026 residential market will continue to contract for a fourth consecutive year.

•Kasikorn Research Center expects total residential ownership transfers in 2026 to be approximately 300,000 units, a 5.1% decrease from 2025.
•The second-hand housing market is expected to hold a larger market share, with estimated transfers of 194,000 units in 2026.
•New residential transfers from legal entities in 2026 are projected to be 106,000 units, a 5.8% decrease from the previous year.
•Accumulated supply of new and second-hand housing currently exceeds 600,000 units.

•Kasikorn Research Center estimates residential ownership transfers in 2026 will decrease by 5.1% from 2025 to approximately 300,000 units.
•Residential purchasing power has weakened because Thai households carry high living costs and debt, with debt approximately 5 times the average monthly income as of the first 6 months of 2025.
•The booking rate for new residences in Bangkok and vicinity in January 2026 averaged only 15%.
•The second-hand market is gaining a higher market share as buyers seek options suited to their purchasing power, with a projected 64.6% share of total transfers in 2026.
•High accumulated supply of over 600,000 units has given buyers more bargaining power, leading Kasikorn Research Center to predict a 0.6% decrease in average transfer prices to 2.72 million baht per unit in 2026.
•Government measures including transfer and mortgage fee reductions for homes not exceeding 7 million baht and LTV relaxations for first and second homes are scheduled to end on June 30, 2026.
•Foreign condominium ownership transfers in 2026 are projected to increase by 1.8% to approximately 15,200 units.
•Global economic uncertainty, conflicts in the Middle East, and potential energy price hikes are adding pressure to construction costs and investment caution for operators.

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Kasikorn Research Center(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย)

An organization that analyzes and provides projections for the Thai residential real estate market.

National Statistical Office(สำนักงานสถิติแห่งชาติ)ℹ️

The agency providing data on Thai household debt and average income for the first 6 months of 2025.

Bangkok and Vicinity(กรุงเทพฯ และปริมณฑล)

The area where the booking rate for new residences was recorded in January 2026.

Middle East(ตะวันออกกลาง)ℹ️

A region where conflicts are creating global economic uncertainty affecting the real estate market.

Transfer and Mortgage Fee Reduction Measure(มาตรการลดค่าธรรมเนียมโอนและจำนอง)

A government measure for residences priced not exceeding 7 million baht.

LTV Relaxation Measure(มาตรการผ่อนคลาย LTV)

A government measure for first and second home purchases scheduled to end on June 30, 2026.