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Kasikorn Research: New Econ Team to Control Fiscal Discipline, Boost 2026 Economy

Kasikorn Research: New Econ Team to Control Fiscal Discipline, Boost 2026 Economy

Matichon•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Kasikorn Research foresees Thailand's economy growing 1.6% in 2026, contingent on government formation and fiscal discipline by the new economic team, with recovery expected in the latter half of the year.

  • •Kasikorn Research projects Thailand's GDP to grow at 1.6% in 2026, attributing slower growth in the first half to political uncertainty and delayed stimulus measures.
  • •Full economic recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2026, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, following the establishment of a stable government.
  • •The research center hopes the new economic team will prioritize fiscal discipline, aiming to reduce the budget deficit below 3% by 2029, as outlined in the medium-term fiscal plan.
  • •The 'Khon La Khrueng Plus' subsidy program, initially planned for Q1, may be postponed to Q2 or Q3 depending on government formation.

Overview

  • •Kasikorn Research has released its economic forecast for Thailand for the year 2026.
  • •The economic growth forecast for 2026 is set at 1.6%, influenced by the previous year's base and political dynamics.
  • •The first half of 2026 is expected to experience political vacuum due to delays in government formation, impacting the rollout of new economic stimulus measures.
  • •The first quarter of 2026 is compared to the first quarter of 2025, which benefited from stimulus programs like Easy E-Receipt and a 10,000 Baht digital money phase 2 for the elderly.
  • •Economic recovery is anticipated to become clearer in Q3 and Q4 of 2026, following the formation of a government.
  • •Kasikorn Research expresses hope for a new economic team to continue and promote fiscal discipline, referencing a medium-term fiscal plan aimed at reducing the budget deficit.
  • •The 'Khon La Khrueng Plus' program, initially planned for Q1, is now looking at a potential delay to Q2 or Q3, dependent on government formation.
  • •Kasikorn Research emphasizes the expectation for a government with a longer tenure to implement policies with more substantial mid- to long-term effects.

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Key Quotes

Nattaporn Treeratansiri
"However, if a government is established, the economic picture is expected to improve in the second half of the year, with clarity gradually appearing in Q3 and Q4."
อย่างไรก็ตาม หากมีการจัดตั้งรัฐบาลคาดว่าภาพเศรษฐกิจน่าจะดีขึ้น ในช่วงครึ่งปีหลัง โดยอาจจะทยอยเห็นชัดเจนในไตรมาส 3 ไตรมาส 4
Nattaporn Treeratansiri
"We expect the new economic team to continue and push forward policies, especially regarding fiscal discipline."
คาดหวังให้ทีมเศรษฐกิจชุดใหม่เข้ามาสานต่อและผลักดันนโยบาย โดยเฉพาะการควบคุมวินัยด้านการคลัง
Nattaporn Treeratansiri
"We expect a government with a longer term to be able to implement policies that yield mid- to long-term results."
คาดหวังให้รัฐบาลที่มีอายุการทำงานยาวขึ้นสามารถวางนโยบายที่เห็นผลในระยะกลางถึงยาวได้มากขึ้น

Key Entities

Organization

Kasikorn Research(วิจัยกสิกร)ℹ️
A Thai financial research institution that has forecasted the Thai economy for 2026.
Kasikorn Research Company Limited(บริษัท ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย จำกัด)ℹ️
The full official name of the research institution providing economic forecasts.

Person

Nattaporn Treeratansiri(น.ส.ณัฐพร ตรีรัตน์ศิริกุล)
Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research, who provided the economic forecast and analysis.