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Kasikorn Research: 2026 GDP up to 1.9%, Exports to rise 1.6%

Kasikorn Research: 2026 GDP up to 1.9%, Exports to rise 1.6%

Khaosod•Economy•19h ago

Reader Briefing

Kasikorn Research has raised its 2026 (2026) GDP growth forecast to 1.9% and predicts a positive export growth of 1.6%, driven by strong private investment momentum and global AI/Data Center investment trends.

  • •Kasikorn Research revised its 2026 (2026) GDP growth forecast upwards from 1.6% to 1.9%.
  • •Export growth for 2026 (2026) is now expected to be 1.6%, a significant improvement from the previous -1.2% forecast.
  • •The positive outlook is supported by strong private investment in construction and machinery, particularly for Data Centers and electronics manufacturing.
  • •The research suggests that the Thai economy in Q4/2025 avoided technical recession, expanding by 2.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, leading to an estimated full-year growth of 2.4% for 2025.

Overview

  • •Kasikorn Research has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2026 (2026) from 1.6% to 1.9%, due to better-than-expected private investment momentum.
  • •The export growth forecast for 2026 (2026) has been revised upwards to 1.6% from a prior expectation of -1.2% contraction.
  • •The Thai economy in Q4/2025 expanded by 2.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, avoiding technical recession and contributing to a full-year 2025 growth of 2.4%.
  • •This GDP upgrade is driven by strong private investment momentum, particularly in industrial estate construction to support Data Center and electronics investments.
  • •Global investment trends in AI and Data Centers are a key factor boosting demand for ICs and Telecom equipment, positively impacting Thai exports.
  • •The government's fiscal budget, expected to be implemented by Q4/2026 following a completed government formation by June 2026, will support continued economic activity.
  • •The political transition is expected to conclude between April and June 2026, paving the way for the fiscal budget implementation.
  • •Kasikorn Research will monitor further details of the new government's policies upon their official assumption of office to update economic outlooks.

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Key Entities

Organization

Kasikorn Research(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกร)ℹ️
A research center that provides economic analysis and forecasts for Thailand.
Kasikorn Research(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย)ℹ️
A research center that provides economic analysis and forecasts for Thailand.
KResearchℹ️
An abbreviation for Kasikorn Research, an economic research institution.

Law

EV 3.0
A government measure related to electric vehicles.

Policy

Khon La Khrueng Plus(คนละครึ่งพลัส)
A government stimulus program aimed at boosting private consumption.
Tiew Dee Mee Keun 2025(เที่ยวดีมีคืน 2025)
A government tourism promotion campaign for the year 2025 (2025).
FastPass
A government measure designed to attract and expedite private investment.

Place

EECℹ️
The Eastern Economic Corridor, a special economic zone in Thailand known for industrial development.

Industry

Data Centerℹ️
A sector of increasing investment and development in Thailand, particularly within industrial estates.