Kasikorn Research: 2026 GDP Target Raised, Consumption & Investment Accelerating

MGR Online•Economy•3h ago

Reader Briefing

Kasikorn Research and Krungthai COMPASS revise upward Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast, citing accelerating private investment and consumption momentum, despite potential trade challenges.

•Kasikorn Research has raised the GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.9% from 1.6%.
•Krungthai COMPASS estimates 2026 GDP growth at 1.8% with expectations of continued private investment.
•Thailand's economy in Q4/2025 grew by 2.5% YoY, avoiding technical recession, with full-year 2025 growth at 2.4%.
•Potential trade impacts from US reciprocal tariffs on sectors like semiconductors are a noted concern.

Overview

•Thailand's economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q4/2025, leading to a full-year 2025 growth of 2.4%.
•The Q4/2025 growth helped Thailand avoid technical recession, exceeding previous KResearch forecasts.
•Economic growth in 2025 was boosted by accelerated vehicle purchases before the EV 3.0 scheme expiry and government measures supporting private consumption.
•Kasikorn Research revised its 2026 GDP forecast upward to 1.9% from 1.6% due to better-than-expected private investment momentum.
•Krungthai COMPASS projects 2026 GDP growth at 1.8% YoY, anticipating continued private investment growth.
•Thailand's economy grew 1.9% QoQ in Q4/2025, driven by robust consumer spending on durable goods and construction investment.
•The Thai economy is expected to grow between 1.5%-2.5% in 2026, with a median forecast of 2.0% by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council.
•Uncertainty surrounds potential impacts from US reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the US, particularly semiconductors.

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Key Entities

Organization

Kasikorn Research(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย)ℹ️

A research center that analyzes and forecasts Thailand's economic performance.

Krungthai COMPASS

A research unit of Krungthai Bank that provides economic analysis and insights.

Krungthai Bank(ธนาคารกรุงไทย)ℹ️

A state-owned financial institution in Thailand.

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council(สภาพัฒน์)ℹ️

The government agency responsible for economic and social development planning in Thailand.

Law

EV 3.0 Scheme(มาตรการ EV 3.0)

A government initiative in Thailand aimed at promoting electric vehicles.

Tariff Policy(Tariff)

Refers to the reciprocal tariff policy by the United States and potential sectoral tariffs impacting Thai exports.