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Japan Economy Q4 2025: GDP Up 0.2% Below Forecasts, Weak Recovery

Japan Economy Q4 2025: GDP Up 0.2% Below Forecasts, Weak Recovery

Prachachat•International•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Japan's economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in Q4 2025, raising concerns about consumer demand and government fiscal policy.

  • •Japan's GDP grew 0.2% in Q4 2025, falling short of Reuters' 1.6% forecast.
  • •The weak growth is attributed to sluggish domestic demand, low consumer confidence, and the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hikes.
  • •Prime Minister Takaichi is considering additional fiscal stimulus and potential suspension of consumption tax to boost the economy.
  • •Economists express concern over the economy's recovery momentum, citing weak consumption, investment, and exports.

Overview

  • •In Q4 2025, Japan's GDP increased by 0.2%, resulting in lower-than-expected economic growth.
  • •The Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.2% missed the Reuters forecast of 1.6%, indicating a weak recovery.
  • •The Japanese economy, the world's fourth-largest, is facing challenges due to a fragile economic climate and cost-of-living pressures.
  • •The weak economic performance is a significant test for Prime Minister Takaichi, impacting domestic confidence and demand.
  • •Prime Minister Takaichi's government is preparing to increase specific public budgets in order to support consumption and economic growth.
  • •The Bank of Japan (BOJ) confirmed its intention to raise interest rates and normalize monetary policy, having maintained very low interest rates for years.
  • •The economic slowdown is due to continued inflation and a weakening yen.
  • •Takaichi is considering suspending the consumption tax and potentially issuing an additional budget in the first half of the fiscal year starting April to stimulate the economy.

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Source: Prachachat (Original)

Key Quotes

Marcel Thieliant
"Takaichi's efforts to stimulate the economy through relaxed fiscal policy appear to be far-sighted."
ความพยายามในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจผ่านนโยบายการคลังที่ผ่อนคลายของทาคาอิจิ ดูจะเป็นการมองการณ์ไกล
Marcel Thieliant
"It increases the chances that Takaichi will not only continue to suspend food sales tax but can also issue an additional budget in the first half of the fiscal year starting in April, instead of waiting until year-end."
เป็นเพิ่มโอกาสที่ทาคาอิจิจะไม่เพียงแต่เดินหน้าระงับภาษีการขายอาหารเท่านั้น แต่ยังสามารถที่จะออกงบประมาณเพิ่มเติม ในช่วงครึ่งแรกของปีงบประมาณ ที่จะเริ่มต้นในเดือนเมษายนนี้ แทนที่จะรอจนถึงสิ้นปี
Kazutaka Maeda
"The figures show that the economic recovery momentum is not very strong, with consumption, investment, and exports, which were hoped to drive the economy, not as strong as expected."
ตัวเลขแสดงให้เห็นว่าโมเมนตัมการฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจไม่แข็งแกร่งมากนัก โดยการบริโภค การลงทุน และการส่งออก ซึ่งเป็นส่วนที่หวังว่าจะขับเคลื่อนเศรษฐกิจต่อไปนั้น ไม่แข็งแกร่งอย่างที่คาดไว้

Key Entities

Person

Takaichi(ทาคาอิจิ)ℹ️
Prime Minister of Japan, whose fiscal policies are under scrutiny.
Marcel Thieliant(มาร์เซล เธียเลียนต์)
Head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, providing analysis on Japan's economic stimulus efforts.
Kazutaka Maeda(คาซึทากะ มาเอดะ)
Economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, commenting on Japan's economic recovery momentum.
Shinichiro Kobayashi(ชินิชิโร โคบายาชิ)
Senior Economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, discussing sustainable economic growth.

Organization

Reuters(รอยเตอร์)ℹ️
News agency that reported on Japan's Q4 2025 GDP figures and conducted economic forecasts.
Bank of Japan (BOJ)(ธนาคารกลางญี่ปุ่น (BOJ))ℹ️
Central bank of Japan, confirming its intention to raise interest rates and normalize monetary policy.
Capital Economicsℹ️
Economic research firm whose Asia-Pacific head commented on Japan's fiscal policy.
Meiji Yasuda Research Institute(สถาบันวิจัย Meiji Yasuda Research Institute)
Research institution where Kazutaka Maeda works as an economist.
Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting
Consulting firm where Shinichiro Kobayashi serves as a Senior Economist.

Place

Japan(ญี่ปุ่น)ℹ️
Country whose Q4 2025 economic performance is detailed in the article.

Timeline

Q4 2025(ไตรมาสที่ 4/2025)
The specific quarter in 2025 for which Japan's economic data is reported.