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US-Iran War Risk 70-80%, Thai-Cambodian Clashes Feared

US-Iran War Risk 70-80%, Thai-Cambodian Clashes Feared

Thansettakij•Economy•23h ago

Reader Briefing

Experts warn of high US-Iran conflict probability and potential new Thailand-Cambodia clashes, emphasizing proactive risk management for Thailand.

  • •US-Iran conflict has a 70-80% chance of escalating into war if nuclear negotiations fail.
  • •Potential for a third round of clashes between Thailand and Cambodia due to Cambodia's arms buildup and new tactics.
  • •Thailand faces severe economic impacts from Middle East conflict, including rising energy costs and trade disruptions.
  • •Government urged to manage both security and economic risks proactively, considering simultaneous impacts.

Overview

  • •The probability of war between the United States and Iran is assessed at 70-80% if nuclear negotiations fail.
  • •The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and implemented 'Maximum Pressure' due to concerns about Iran's nuclear program, missile development, and regional proxy support.
  • •In June 2025, Israel and the US reportedly launched severe attacks on Iranian nuclear and military targets after no new agreement was reached.
  • •Iran experienced mass protests in late 2025 to early 2026 with over 6,000 deaths, following the US intentionally creating a dollar shortage to destabilize the Iranian Rial.
  • •In February 2026, tensions escalated significantly with the US deploying two carrier strike groups to the Middle East.
  • •Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing in Oman, with the US demanding Iran surrender all enriched uranium and halt missile programs.
  • •Iran insists that its missile program is a non-negotiable 'red line'.
  • •A third round of clashes between Thailand and Cambodia is considered likely if Cambodia's arms accumulation and new tactics continue.

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Key Quotes

Associate Professor Dr. At Pisanwanich
"Now US warships have moved close to the area. If negotiations fail, the chance of confrontation is very high."
ตอนนี้เรือรบของสหรัฐฯ เข้าไปประชิดพื้นที่แล้ว หากการเจรจาล้มเหลว โอกาสปะทะมีสูงมาก
Associate Professor Dr. At Pisanwanich
"This year is not a normal year for geopolitics. Risks are ready to erupt in many places, so the new government must prepare for distant wars and nearby conflicts."
ปีนี้ไม่ใช่ปีปกติของภูมิรัฐศาสตร์ ความเสี่ยงพร้อมปะทุหลายจุด ซึ่งรัฐบาลใหม่ต้องเตรียมรับมือทั้งสงครามไกลตัว และความขัดแย้งใกล้บ้าน

Key Entities

Place

United States(สหรัฐอเมริกา)ℹ️
A global superpower involved in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict with Iran over its nuclear program.
Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️
A nation facing potential war with the United States due to its nuclear program and regional activities.
Thailand(ไทย)ℹ️
A nation whose economy and security are at risk due to potential geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and its border with Cambodia.
Cambodia(กัมพูชา)ℹ️
A bordering nation to Thailand, whose military buildup raises concerns about potential renewed clashes.
Russia(รัสเซีย)ℹ️
A nation whose involvement in the Ukraine war may limit its ability to fully support Iran.
China(จีน)ℹ️
A nation that may avoid direct confrontation with the US in the Middle East and is reportedly watching the situation with Iran.
Oman(โอมาน)ℹ️
The location where indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are reportedly taking place.

Person

Associate Professor Dr. At Pisanwanich(รองศาสตราจารย์ ดร.อัทธ์ พิศาลวานิช)
An independent academic and expert on international economics and ASEAN who provided analysis on the geopolitical risks.
Donald Trump(โดนัลด์ ทรัมป์)ℹ️
Former US President under whom the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.

Law

JCPOAℹ️
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal from which the US withdrew in 2018.

Organization

USS Abraham Lincolnℹ️
A US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East as part of increased military readiness.
USS Gerald R. Fordℹ️
A US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East as part of increased military readiness.