US-Iran Clashes Risk Thai Economy Below 2%

Thansettakij•Economy•12d ago

Reader Briefing

Renewed US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pose a significant risk to Thailand's economic growth, potentially pushing it below 2% in the latter half of 2026.

•International scholars warn that upcoming clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz are a major risk to Thailand's economy.
•The ongoing conflict could cause energy prices to rise, negatively impacting production costs, transportation, inflation, and consumer purchasing power in Thailand.
•Thailand's economic growth forecast of 2.3% (Bank of Thailand) and 2.5% (NESDC) may not be met if Middle East tensions persist.
•Investor confidence is also a concern, dependent on both domestic policy continuity and international stability.

Overview

•The recent resurgence of conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz underscores a strategic dispute over the waterway's control.
•Iran seeks to maintain its authority over the vital shipping lane, while the US insists on freedom of navigation, preventing Iran from using it for economic and political leverage.
•The article notes previous instances of Iran firing missiles and drones at US bases, and a breakdown in temporary ceasefires.
•Volatility in global energy and financial markets has resurfaced due to the renewed tensions, leading to higher oil prices driven by supply concerns.
•Energy costs continue to be a significant threat to the Thai economy in the latter half of 2026.
•The Thai economy remains reliant on oil and natural gas imports, affecting production costs, transportation, inflation, and public purchasing power.
•The projected GDP growth for 2026, estimated at 2.3% by the Bank of Thailand and 2.5% by the NESDC, faces the risk of falling below 2% if Middle East conflicts prolong and energy prices continue to surge.
•The article highlights that current high living costs are exacerbated by the fact that many prices for goods and services have not decreased despite previous drops in oil prices, and the ongoing conflict could push energy costs up again, leading to more cautious consumer spending.

Full article content is available on the original source.

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Source: Thansettakij (Original)

Key Quotes

รองศาสตราจารย์ ดร.อัทธ์ พิศาลวานิช

"The situation in the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran has flared up again."

สถานการณ์ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ ระหว่างสหรัฐฯกับอิหร่านที่ปะทุขึ้นอีกครั้ง

Key Entities

Person

Dr. At(ดร.อัทธ์)

Independent scholar and expert on international economics and ASEAN, who commented on the US-Iran conflict's impact on Thailand's economy.

Trump(ทรัมป์)ℹ️

Figure who reportedly ended the MOU with Iran, leading to the collapse of the temporary ceasefire.

Place

United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

Nation involved in a strategic dispute with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and freedom of navigation.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

Nation engaged in a strategic conflict with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz and its control.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

Vital shipping lane at the center of the US-Iran strategic conflict, impacting global energy markets.

Thailand(ประเทศไทย)ℹ️

Nation whose economy is at risk of contracting below 2% due to Middle East conflict and energy price volatility.

Organization

Bank of Thailand(ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย)ℹ️

Institution that has forecasted Thailand's GDP growth for 2026 at 2.3%.

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council(สำนักงานสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ)ℹ️

Government agency that has forecasted Thailand's GDP growth for 2026 at 2.5%.