InnovestX: Bangkok Floods Drag GDP 0.11%

Post Today•Economy•5d ago

Reader Briefing

InnovestX predicts Bangkok floods will reduce GDP by 0.11% while maintaining a full-year 2026 GDP growth target of 2%.

•Bangkok floods caused approximately 20,000 million baht in damages, affecting GDP by 0.11%.
•InnovestX maintains the 2026 and 2027 GDP growth estimates at 2.0%.
•Foreign tourist arrivals for the full year 2026 are estimated at 33 million people.
•The Thai Chay Thai Plus Phase 2 measure is expected to boost GDP by 0.08%.

Overview

•Heavy rain and flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas caused delays in baggage handling and flight cancellations at Suvarnabhumi Airport.
•Suttichai Kumworachai of InnovestX estimates flood damages in Bangkok at approximately 20,000 million baht, impacting GDP by 0.11%.
•Piyasak Manasan of InnovestX states the current flood is caused by local rainfall and differs significantly from the 2011 Great Flood.
•The Thai Chay Thai Plus Phase 2 measure, with a budget of 42,690.65 million baht, will be used from October 1 to November 30, 2026.
•Piyasak Manasan of InnovestX estimates the third quarter GDP will decrease by approximately 0.4% or 19,100 million baht, primarily affecting retail and services.
•Sittichai Duangrattanachaya of InnovestX warns of potential drought risks (El Nino) from the fourth quarter of 2026 into the first quarter of 2027.
•InnovestX sets the SET Index target for 2027 at 1,715 points and suggests accumulating shares at the 1,550 point level.

Full article content is available on the original source.

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Source: Post Today (Original)

Key Quotes

Piyasak Manasan

"The GDP trend for the third quarter is expected to slow down to approximately 1.7% from the original growth forecast of 2.1% due to flooding in the final week of the quarter."

แนวโน้ม GDP ไตรมาส 3 คาดว่าจะชะลอตัวลงมาอยู่ที่ประมาณ 1.7% จากเดิมคาดการณ์เติบโต 2.1% เนื่องจากเกิดน้ำท่วมในช่วงสัปดาห์สุดท้ายของไตรมาส

Key Entities

Organization

InnovestX(บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ จำกัด)

A securities company providing economic forecasts and investment strategies.

Thai Airways(การบินไทย)ℹ️

An airline whose issues were assessed for their impact on foreign tourists entering Thailand.

Pasak Jolasid Dam(เขื่อนป่าสักฯ)ℹ️

The subject of a 165,000 million baht water management project approved by the government.

Person

Suttichai Kumworachai(สุทธิชัย คุ้มวรชัย)

Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX.

Piyasak Manasan(ปิยศักดิ์ มานะสันต์)

Head of Economic Research at InnovestX.

Sittichai Duangrattanachaya(สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา)

Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX.

Jaronpong Ratanasopa(จรณพงศ์ รัตนะโสภา)

Head of Investment Product Specialist at InnovestX.

Place

Bangkok(กรุงเทพฯ)ℹ️

The area experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding.

Suvarnabhumi Airport(ท่าอากาศยานสุวรรณภูมิ)ℹ️

The airport where ground services were impacted by flooding.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

A developed market mentioned in the context of high interest rate resilience and geopolitical conflict with Iran.

Iran(อิหร่าน)ℹ️

A country involved in a prolonged conflict with the USA.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

A shipping route whose normalization could change risk directions.

Policy

Thai Chay Thai Plus Phase 2(ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส เฟส 2)

A government measure with a budget of 42,690.65 million baht to support GDP.