Hun Sen Crisis: Vietnam Risks Third Cambodia War?!

MGR Online•Politics•88d ago

Reader Briefing

Mounting economic and political instability in Cambodia, particularly for the Hun Sen family, could spark a third border conflict with Thailand.

•Increased tension along the Thai-Cambodian border is linked to Cambodia's deteriorating economy and potential internal instability.
•China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Cambodia and Thailand, offering to mediate and reporting Cambodia's desire to de-escalate.
•Thailand maintains a firm stance on border reopening, requiring Cambodia to adhere to a Joint Statement and protect Thai sovereignty.
•Cambodia faces severe economic challenges due to the Middle East energy crisis, trade disruptions with Thailand, and a global crackdown on scam operations, potentially leading to nationalist diversionary tactics.

Overview

•The past two weeks have seen unusually tense atmospheres along the Thai-Cambodian border, with continuous activity from the Cambodian side.
•Deteriorating economic conditions within Cambodia are viewed as a significant factor that could drive a third border war with Thailand.
•In the past week, Chinese Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar.
•Wang Yi visited Cambodia with the Minister of Defense. On April 24, Wang Yi met with Thai Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsuthin and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also Minister of Interior.
•Anutin Charnvirakul relayed that China stated Cambodia no longer wished for conflict with Thailand and offered to mediate.
•Anutin Charnvirakul emphasized that Thailand does not seek conflict with neighbors but requires established rules and mutual trust to restore relations, and that national interests are paramount.
•Defense Minister Gen. Apichai Boonyathippa confirmed Thailand will not open border crossings until Cambodia adheres to the Joint Statement, emphasizing the protection of Thai sovereignty.
•Economic crises in Cambodia, including the energy crisis from the Middle East war, trade disruptions with Thailand, and a reputation as a global scam center, are creating internal political instability for the ruling "father-son" duo, potentially leading to nationalist diversionary tactics, such as creating border incidents with Thailand, especially with elections approaching next year.

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Key Quotes

Anutin Charnvirakul

"We do not want conflict with any neighboring country, but we have steps to discuss. We must establish rules first on how discussions can revive relations. It won't be overnight; mutual trust and confidence must be built. This is the stance conveyed to Wang Yi."

เราไม่ต้องการมีความขัดแย้งกับประเทศเพื่อนบ้านใดๆ เลย แต่เราก็มีขั้นตอนที่จะพูดคุย เราต้องสร้างกติกาขึ้นมาก่อนว่าการพูดคุยในทิศทางใดที่จะทำให้ความสัมพันธ์รื้อฟื้นขึ้นมาได้ แต่คงไม่ใช่ชั่วข้ามคืน ต้องสร้างความเชื่อมั่นต่อกันและกัน ความเชื่อถือ ความสัมพันธ์ นี่คือท่าทีที่ได้แจ้งนายหวัง อี้ ไป

Gen. Apichai Boonyathippa

"I will never open the border until all steps are completed, as we consider our sovereignty protected. Government policy is clear: we will not open borders until they comply with the Joint Statement."

ผมจะไม่มีวันเปิดด่าน จนกว่าจะดำเนินการตามขั้นตอนนี้ทั้งหมด เพราะเราถือว่าได้ปกป้องอธิปไตยของเราไว้เรียบร้อยแล้ว ซึ่งนโยบายของรัฐบาลได้บอกเอาไว้ชัดเจนแล้วว่า เราจะไม่เปิดด่าน จนกว่าเขาจะปฏิบัติตาม Joint Statement

Key Entities

Person

Hun Sen(ฮุนเซน)ℹ️

Chairman of the Senate of Cambodia, facing political instability.

Wang Yi(หวัง อี้)ℹ️

Chinese Politburo member and Minister of Foreign Affairs, acting as a potential mediator.

Anutin Charnvirakul(อนุทิน ชาญวีรกูล)ℹ️

Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, who discussed border issues with Wang Yi.

Sihasak Phuangketkaew(สีหศักดิ์ พวงเกตุแก้ว)

Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, who met with Wang Yi.

Hun Manet(ฮุน มาเนต)ℹ️

Prime Minister of Cambodia, facing economic and political challenges alongside his father.

Gen. Apichai Boonyathippa(พล.ท.อดุลย์ บุญธรรมเจริญ)

Thai Minister of Defence, who stated that border crossings will not open without adherence to the Joint Statement.

Place

Cambodia(กัมพูชา)ℹ️

Country facing economic and political challenges, potentially igniting border conflict.

Thailand(ไทย)ℹ️

Country facing border tensions with Cambodia and asserting its sovereignty.

Law

Joint Statement

A crucial agreement that Cambodia must comply with for border crossings to reopen.

Organization

Regional Border Committee Thailand-Cambodia (RBC)(คณะกรรมการชายแดนภูมิภาคไทย-กัมพูชา)

One of the established mechanisms for discussions between Thai and Cambodian border committees.

General Border Committee (GBC)(คณะกรรมการชายแดนทั่วไป)

One of the established mechanisms for discussions between Thai and Cambodian border committees.

Joint Boundary Commission (JBC)(คณะกรรมาธิการเขตแดนร่วม)

One of the established mechanisms for discussions between Thai and Cambodian border committees.

Scammers(สแกมเมอร์)

Illegal actors whose operations in Cambodia have damaged its global image and reduced income, forcing crackdowns.