thailandedition
GDP Recovery Signals Prompt 2026 Forecast Increase

GDP Recovery Signals Prompt 2026 Forecast Increase

Post Today•Economy•12h ago

Reader Briefing

Thai economic outlook for 2026 is revised upwards by analysts, citing stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q4/2025 and improved private investment momentum.

  • •Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) has raised its GDP forecast for Thailand in 2026 from 1.6% to 1.9%.
  • •The upward revision is driven by better-than-expected private investment and export growth, particularly in the Data Center and electronics sectors.
  • •Krungsri Research is also reviewing its 2026 GDP forecast upward from 1.8% due to a stronger Q4/2025 performance.
  • •Political stability and continued economic policies are expected to support investor confidence.
  • •The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be the economic low point for the year, with expected slowdowns in public investment and private consumption.

Overview

  • •Q4/2025 GDP grew by 2.5%, exceeding KResearch's expectation of 0.8% YoY.
  • •KResearch has revised its 2026 GDP forecast upward from 1.6% to 1.9%.
  • •The upward revision is due to better-than-expected private investment momentum and an improved outlook for exports and imports.
  • •Private investment is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2026.
  • •Thai exports in 2026 are now expected to grow by 1.6%, a shift from a previous forecast of -1.2% contraction.
  • •The formation of a new government is expected to be completed between April and June 2026, supporting the enforcement of the 2027 budget within Q4.
  • •Q1/2026 is expected to be the economic low point for the year due to a slowdown in public investment and private consumption.
  • •Krungsri Research is reviewing its 2026 GDP forecast, previously at 1.8%, with a likelihood of a slight upward adjustment.

Full article content is available on the original source.

Read on Post Today (Thai Version)View in Google Translate

Source: Post Today (Original)

Key Quotes

ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย
"The figures represent higher-than-expected growth, exceeding KResearch's previous estimation of 0.8% YoY. Therefore, the GDP figures for 2026 have been reviewed and revised upward from 1.6% to 1.9%."
เลขดังกล่าวเป็นการขยายตัวสูงกว่าคาด และสูงกว่าที่ KResearch ประเมินไว้ที่ 0.8% YoY ดังนั้นจึงได้ ทบทวนตัวเลข GDP ปี 2026 โดยปรับประมาณการเศรษฐกิจไทยปี 2026 ขึ้นจาก 1.6% มาอยู่ที่ 1.9%
ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย
"Thai exports in 2026 are expected to grow by 1.6%, a significant shift from the previous expectation of -1.2% contraction."
การส่งออกไทยปี 2026 คาดว่าจะขยายตัวที่ 1.6% จากเดิมที่คาดว่าจะหดตัว -1.2%
วิจัยกรุงศรี
"The announced GDP figures show growth exceeding Krungsri Research and market expectations of 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively."
ตัวเลข GDP ที่ประกาศเติบโตดีกว่าที่วิจัยกรุงศรีและตลาดคาดไว้ที่ 1.2% และ 1.3%

Key Entities

Organization

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(สำนักงานสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ (สภาพัฒน์))ℹ️
The government agency that released the Q4/2025 GDP figures showing 2.5% growth.
Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch)(ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย)
A research institution that revised its GDP forecast for Thailand in 2026 upward.
KResearch
An abbreviation for Kasikorn Research Center, mentioned for its previous GDP estimation.
Krungsri Research(วิจัยกรุงศรี)
A research firm that commented on the Q4/2025 GDP figures and is reviewing its 2026 forecast.

Place

Eastern Economic Corridor(EEC)ℹ️
A special economic zone in Thailand mentioned in context of industrial estate expansion for Data Center and electronics industries.
United States(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️
The country whose import tax on semiconductors is discussed as not significantly impacting Thailand.

Policy

Kon La Kreung Plus(คนละครึ่งพลัส)
A government stimulus measure, specifically mentioning Phase 2, which is expected to commence after government formation.