FED Meeting Scenarios and Global Market Impact

Thansettakij•Economy•2h ago

Reader Briefing

Asia Plus Securities analyzes three potential outcomes of the FED meeting and its impact on global stock markets amid rising oil prices.

•Asia Plus Securities evaluated three scenarios for FED interest rate directions based on the upcoming meeting and Dot Plot.
•The FED meeting on September 15-16, 2026, will include the release of Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot.
•Global oil prices have risen following a temporary shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline due to attacks.
•Market expectations suggest the FED may raise interest rates twice this year and twice next year.

•Asia Plus Securities analysts are monitoring the FED meeting and Dot Plot for signals on future interest rate levels.
•The FED meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, will involve the disclosure of the Summary of Economic Projections.
•Attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which transports 4-5 million barrels per day, have caused global oil prices to rise.
•Higher energy costs may lead to increased goods and transport prices, potentially forcing the FED to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation.
•In one scenario, the FED may keep interest rates at 3.50-3.75% while signaling only one rate hike this year, which could boost stock markets.
•If the Dot Plot signals more than one rate hike this year, it may lead to higher US bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and capital outflows from risky assets.
•The FedSpeak index has risen close to 9.0, reflecting the most restrictive view since mid-2023 when US interest rates were around 5%.
•Investors are advised to monitor the terminal rate and the number of expected rate hikes in addition to the 0.25% decision.

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Asia Plus Securities(บล.เอเซีย พลัส)

A securities firm whose research department analyzed FED meeting scenarios and their impacts on stock markets.

FED

The central bank of the United States responsible for setting monetary policy and interest rates.

East-West Pipeline

A 1,200-kilometer strategic oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia that transports 4-5 million barrels of oil per day.

CME FedWatch Tool

A tool that calculates the probability of interest rate changes based on Fed Funds futures prices.

Saudi Arabia(ซาอุดีอาระเบีย)ℹ️

The country where the East-West Pipeline is located and which exports oil via the Red Sea.

Red Sea(ทะเลแดง)ℹ️

The sea through which Saudi Arabia exports oil using the East-West Pipeline to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz(ช่องแคบฮอร์มุซ)ℹ️

A maritime passage that Saudi Arabia avoids by using the East-West Pipeline for oil exports.

USA(สหรัฐฯ)ℹ️

The country whose central bank is the FED and whose energy minister provided an estimate for pipeline repairs.