Election to Shape 2026 Thai Economy: Innovest X Advises Investment Strategy

Khaosod•Economy•268d ago

Reader Briefing

Innovest X predicts the 2026 Thai economy will be significantly shaped by election outcomes and advises a selective investment approach amid global economic uncertainties.

•Innovest X forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow by 1.4% this year.
•The formation of a new government and approval of the 2027 budget are crucial for economic improvement in the latter half of the year.
•Global economy to be a 'Year of Two Halves,' slowing in H1 and recovering in H2, with emerging South-South alliances and widespread AI adoption.

Overview

•Innovest X forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow by 1.4% in 2025, with the election outcome significantly determining the economic trajectory for 2026.
•A smooth formation of the new government could lead to the approval of the 2027 budget in Q2, preventing significant delays in budget expenditure.
•Political party economic stimulus policies, if enacted, could boost the Thai economy by 0.12-0.50% from the base case.
•The global economy is expected to follow a 'Year of Two Halves' pattern, characterized by a slowdown in the first half due to trade wars and policy delays, followed by a recovery in the second half.
•The rise of Global South blocs, particularly BRIC, the widespread adoption of AI in business, and climate risks like La Niña are noted factors for the global economy.
•Suttichai Kumworachai from Innovest X's Research Department advises increased selectivity and diversification in investments for 2026 due to high valuations and potential shocks.
•Global economic risks include high debt, climate change, and international political tensions, particularly concerning China-Japan over Taiwan and US-China and Middle East conflicts.
•Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head Strategist, recommends selecting Thai stocks by theme, focusing on quality dividend stocks like AP and KTB, growth stocks like MTC and TRUE, and undervalued stocks in tourism, food, and retail.

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Key Quotes

Suttichai Kumworachai

"Investment in 2026 requires more selection and diversification due to investment risks."

การลงทุนในปี 2569 ต้องคัดสรรและกระจายตัวมากขึ้น จากความเสี่ยงการลงทุน

Suttichai Kumworachai

"Investment in 2026 is expected to still yield good returns, with the global economy continuing to grow though slowing, not entering recession."

การลงทุนในปี 2569 ที่คาดจะยังให้ผลตอบแทนที่ดี จากเศรษฐกิจโลกที่ยังเติบโตได้ แม้จะชะลอตัวลงบ้างแต่ไม่เข้าสู่ภาวะถดถอย

Sittichai Duangrattanachaya

"Recommended to select stocks by investment theme, focusing on quality dividend stocks for cash flow."

Key Entities

Organization

Innovest X(อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์)

A financial advisory firm that issued an economic forecast and investment recommendations.

AP (Property)(AP)ℹ️

A recommended Thai stock for investors seeking quality dividend stocks for cash flow in 2026.

KTB (Krungthai Bank)(KTB)ℹ️

A recommended Thai stock for investors seeking quality dividend stocks for cash flow in 2026.

MTC (MThai Capital)(MTC)ℹ️

A recommended Thai stock for aggressive investors seeking growth with improving profits in 2026.

TRUE (True Corporation)(TRUE)ℹ️

A recommended Thai stock for aggressive investors seeking growth with improving profits in 2026.

CENTEL (Centara Hotels & Resorts)(CENTEL)ℹ️

A Thai stock in the tourism sector that is considered undervalued and attractive for investment in 2026.

TU (Thai Union Group)(TU)ℹ️

A Thai stock in the food sector that is considered undervalued and attractive for investment in 2026.

CPALL (CP All Public Company Limited)(CPALL)ℹ️

A Thai stock in the retail sector that is considered undervalued and attractive for investment in 2026.

OR (PTT Oil and Retail Business)(OR)ℹ️

A Thai stock in the retail sector that is considered undervalued and attractive for investment in 2026.

Amazonℹ️

A US technology platform stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

Googleℹ️

A US technology platform stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

Metaℹ️

A US technology platform stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

Eli Lillyℹ️

A US healthcare stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

LVMHℹ️

A European premium brand stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

Orstedℹ️

A European clean energy stock recommended for investment due to its quality and growth prospects in 2026.

Tencentℹ️

A Chinese technology stock recommended for investment due to its growth prospects, supported by government policy in 2026.

CATLℹ️

A Chinese industrial stock recommended for investment due to its growth prospects, supported by government policy in 2026.

BRICℹ️

A bloc of countries mentioned as having increased influence in the global economy, alongside Global South alliances.

Person

Suttichai Kumworachai(สุทธิชัย คุ้มวรชัย)

Head of Research Department at Innovest X, who provided insights on investment risks and global economic outlook for 2026.

Sittichai Duangrattanachaya(สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา)

Head Strategist at Innovest X, who provided specific stock recommendations for the Thai and international markets in 2026.

President Trump(ประธานาธิบดีทรัมป์)ℹ️

Mentioned as a factor contributing to unpredictable trade war escalation and market volatility.