"Dr. At" Warns of Unusual Q4 GDP Hike; Bhumjaithai Party Key to 3% Growth

Thansettakij•Economy•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Thailand's GDP growth in 2025 exceeded expectations at 2.4%, driven by a surprisingly strong Q4, but an expert warns this surge is unusual and structural issues threaten future growth.

•Thailand's GDP grew 2.4% in 2025, surpassing the original forecast of 2%.
•Q4 2025 saw a significant expansion of 2.5%, contributing to the annual growth.
•An independent expert, Dr. At Pitsanwanich, described the Q4 growth as "unusual" and questioned the drivers behind it.
•The expert suggests that the Bhumjaithai Party must manage both the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture to achieve sustained 3% GDP growth.

Overview

•In 2025, Thai GDP expanded by 2.4%, exceeding the initial forecast of 2%.
•Following a Q4 2025 expansion of 2.5%, the overall GDP growth for the year reached 2.4%.
•The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) revised its GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.5–2.5% with a median of 2%.
•Key growth drivers in Q4 2025 included exports (5.6%), private consumption (3.3%), government consumption (1.3%), and total investment (8.1%).
•Dr. At Pitsanwanich commented that the 2.5% Q4 growth is unusual given the slowdown in the preceding three quarters.
•Thailand's 2025 GDP growth was the lowest in ASEAN (excluding Myanmar), with most regional peers growing 4-6%.
•Dr. At Pitsanwanich warned that without new, clear measures, the Thai economy might remain within the 2-2.5% growth range in 2026.
•The Bhumjaithai Party is advised to oversee both the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture to integrate production and marketing for the economy to potentially reach 3% growth.

Full article content is available on the original source.

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Source: Thansettakij (Original)

Key Quotes

Dr. At Pitsanwanich

"I see the 2.5% growth in Q4 as unusual because the previous three quarters showed continuous deceleration."

ผมมองว่าการโต 2.5% ในไตรมาส 4 ถือว่าผิดปกติ เพราะ 3 ไตรมาสก่อนหน้าชะลอลงต่อเนื่อง

Dr. At Pitsanwanich

"If the root causes are not addressed, Thailand's economy will remain stuck at 2-2.5%. Stimulation alone is like makeup, it washes off and is the same."

ถ้าไม่แก้ที่รากฐาน เศรษฐกิจไทยก็จะวนอยู่แค่ 2–2.5% การกระตุ้นอย่างเดียวเหมือนแต่งหน้า ล้างออกก็เหมือนเดิม

Key Entities

Organization

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)(สำนักงานสภาพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ)ℹ️

The Thai government agency responsible for economic planning and forecasting, which released GDP data.

Than Settakij(ฐานเศรษฐกิจ)

The media outlet that interviewed Dr. At Pitsanwanich for this article.

Bhumjaithai Party(ภูมิใจไทย)ℹ️

A political party mentioned as a potential key player in driving economic growth.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)(กองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ)ℹ️

An international financial institution whose GDP forecast for Thailand was mentioned.

Ministry of Commerce(กระทรวงพาณิชย์)ℹ️

A government ministry suggested for the Bhumjaithai Party to oversee to boost economic growth.

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives(กระทรวงเกษตรและสหกรณ์)ℹ️

A government ministry suggested for the Bhumjaithai Party to oversee to boost economic growth.

Person

Dr. At Pitsanwanich(ดร. อัทธ์ พิศาลวานิช)

An independent academic and expert on international economics and ASEAN, who commented on Thailand's GDP in the article.

Policy

Khon La Khrueng Plus(คนละครึ่งพลัส)

An economic stimulus policy mentioned as insufficient for achieving 3% GDP growth.