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Cost & Energy Crisis to Hit Q2; SMEs Face Bankruptcy Risk

Cost & Energy Crisis to Hit Q2; SMEs Face Bankruptcy Risk

Thansettakij•Economy•2d ago

Reader Briefing

Thailand's business sector faces a prolonged cost and energy crisis extending into the second quarter of 2026, with a significant risk of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) facing bankruptcy.

  • •The Thai business sector is experiencing a cost and energy crisis affecting Q1 and expected to continue into Q2 of 2026.
  • •Rising supplier costs, particularly for packaging materials, are not being passed on to consumers, forcing businesses to absorb losses.
  • •SMEs are particularly vulnerable due to limited cash flow and are resorting to cost-cutting measures like reducing overtime.
  • •Potential government measures like limited fuel station operating hours could negatively impact the agricultural sector's logistics.

Overview

  • •In Q1 of 2026, the Thai business sector experienced rising cost of living and operational expenses.
  • •Supplier price increases for raw materials like packaging, plastics, and paper, some of which rose 20-40%, are impacting businesses.
  • •Producers are absorbing increased costs because they cannot adjust selling prices, leading to potential bankruptcies.
  • •The business sector anticipates continued volatility in Q2 of 2026 due to unresolved global conflicts like the Middle East war.
  • •SMEs, with limited financial reserves, are struggling to survive and are cutting overtime and production to manage.
  • •The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has acknowledged the risk of stagflation and revised Thailand's GDP forecast to 0.2-1.4% for 2026.
  • •If the Middle East conflict continues for over 3 months, the Thai economy is at risk of near 0% growth, with high inflation and low growth.
  • •The government is considering measures for the energy crisis, including limiting fuel station operating hours from 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM.

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Source: Thansettakij (Original)

Key Quotes

Vissate Limluecha
"If the situation does not end within 3 months, the impact will be severe, especially for SMEs with short cash flow, operating month-to-month. Bearing the burden for more than 2-3 months without sales will be extremely difficult."
หากสถานการณ์ไม่จบภายใน 3 เดือน ผลกระทบจะรุนแรงมากต่อภารธุรกิจ โดยเฉพาะ SMEs ที่ส่วนใหญ่มีสายป่านสั้น หมุนเงินแบบเดือนต่อเดือน หากต้องแบกภาระเกิน 2-3 เดือนโดยขายของไม่ได้ ถือเป็นเรื่องที่ยากลำบากมาก
Vissate Limluecha
"This packaging issue is serious, affecting Thailand's economic foundation, requiring urgent government action as it drives goods in the economic chain."
ปัญหานี้ถือเป็นเรื่องซีเรียสที่กระทบต่อโครงสร้างฐานรากของเศรษฐกิจไทย ที่รัฐบาลต้องเร่งแก้ไข เพราถือเป็นคือปัจจัยสำคัญขับเคลื่อนสินค้าในห่วงโซ่เศรษฐกิจ

Key Entities

Person

Vissate Limluecha(นายวิศิษฐ์ ลิ้มลือชา)
Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and President of the Future Food Trade Association, who commented on the economic crisis.

Organization

Thai Chamber of Commerce(หอการค้าไทย)
An organization whose Vice Chairman commented on the economic crisis.
Future Food Trade Association(สมาคมการค้าอาหารอนาคตไทย)
An association whose President commented on the economic crisis.
SMEsℹ️
Small and Medium Enterprises highly vulnerable to the current economic crisis.
NESDC(สศช.)ℹ️
The National Economic and Social Development Council, which acknowledged the risk of stagflation for the Thai economy.
Cabinet(ครม.)
The Cabinet, which approved measures to accelerate addressing the economic and energy crisis.
NSTDA(สอวช.)
The National Science, Research and Innovation Council (though the text says 'สอวช.' which is likely referring to agency related to food innovation or research), promoting the Plant-Rich Food System as a new economic opportunity.