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Cancelling MOU 44: Academic Views on New Maritime Strategy

Cancelling MOU 44: Academic Views on New Maritime Strategy

Matichon•Politics•1d ago

Reader Briefing

Academics debate the implications of Thailand potentially cancelling MOU 44 with Cambodia, emphasizing the need for a clear strategy post-cancellation.

  • •Thai academics are analyzing the potential consequences of the Thai government cancelling the MOU 44 with Cambodia concerning disputed maritime areas.
  • •Key concerns include legal, diplomatic, and security ramifications, as well as the impact on border populations.
  • •Experts highlight the necessity of establishing new negotiation frameworks and clear strategies to manage maritime claims and resources post-cancellation.

Overview

  • •MOU 44, signed on June 18, 2001, established a framework for negotiating overlapping maritime claims between Thailand and Cambodia.
  • •The upcoming Thai government, potentially formed after the February 8, 2026 election, is considering cancelling MOU 44.
  • •The potential cancellation is driven by political considerations, a desire to assert sovereignty, and societal concerns about energy resources in the Gulf of Thailand.
  • •Cancelling MOU 44 without a clear replacement could lead to the breakdown of communication mechanisms, increased assertion of individual rights in the disputed area, and potential negative effects on business, investment, and bilateral relations.
  • •If cancelled, Thailand should propose a new negotiation framework based on international maritime law (UNCLOS), clearly define baselines, and involve experts in law, energy, and security.
  • •Academics emphasize that cancelling MOU 44 does not automatically reclaim territory but ends the existing negotiation framework.
  • •Without a framework, Thailand risks increased foreign interference and potential for renewed clashes, requiring a robust crisis management plan for border incidents.
  • •The decision to cancel MOU 44 is under consideration by the potential new Thai government, with significant discussion on the subsequent strategic steps.

Full article content is available on the original source.

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Source: Matichon (Original)

Key Quotes

Thanachet Wisaijorn
"The key question is, if the new government is successfully formed after the February 8, 2026 election, decides to cancel MOU 44, what will happen next, in terms of law, diplomacy, security, and the lives of border residents."
คำถามสำคัญคือหากรัฐบาลใหม่จัดตั้งได้สำเร็จหลังจากการเลือกตั้งวันที่ 8 กุมภาพันธ์ 2026 ที่ผ่านมา ตัดสินใจยกเลิกเอ็มโอยู 44 จะเกิดอะไรขึ้นตามมา ทั้งในเชิงกฎหมาย การทูตความมั่นคง และชีวิตของประชาชนชายแดน
Thanachet Wisaijorn
"If the new government cancels MOU 44, a positive outcome is that the government gains political space to review the long-standing negotiation framework that has not yet yielded results."
หากรัฐบาลใหม่ยกเลิกเอ็มโอยู 44 ผลในเชิงบวกคือรัฐบาลจะได้พื้นที่ทางการเมืองในการทบทวนกรอบการเจรจาดำเนินมายาวนาน แต่ยังไม่บรรลุผล
Thanachet Wisaijorn
"Conversely, negative impacts are highly probable if there isn't a clear replacement framework."
ในทางกลับกัน ผลกระทบเชิงลบมีความเป็นไปได้สูงหากไม่มีกรอบทดแทนชัดเจน
Thanachet Wisaijorn
"Ultimately, the crucial question isn't just whether to cancel, but how to proceed after cancellation."
ท้ายที่สุด คำถามสำคัญไม่ใช่เพียงว่าควรยกเลิกหรือไม่ แต่คือหลังยกเลิกแล้วจะเดินอย่างไรต่อ
Thitipong Boonyawongvivat
"The ensuing problem is, in the future, will we still intend to use negotiation mechanisms?"
ปัญหาตามมาคือ ต่อไปในอนาคตเรายังมีความตั้งใจจะใช้กลไกในการเจรจาด้วยหรือไม่
Thitipong Boonyawongvivat
"If there's no framework, it means we have no immunity against foreign interference. This is a major problem."
ถ้าไม่มีกรอบ นั่นหมายความว่าเราไม่มีภูมิคุ้มกันในการต้านทานการแทรกแซงจากต่างประเทศ นี่คือปัญหาใหญ่

Key Entities

Person

Anutin Charnvirakul(นายอนุทิน ชาญวีรกูล)ℹ️
A politician who is the Prime Minister of Thailand, as mentioned in the context of the government's stance on cancelling MOU 44.
Thanachet Wisaijorn(ธนเชษฐ วิสัยจร)
Head of the Public Administration major at the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University, providing expert analysis on the cancellation of MOU 44.
Thitipong Boonyawongvivat(ฐิติวุฒิ บุญยวงศ์วิวัชร)
A lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration, Chiang Mai University, offering academic insights on geopolitical implications and potential foreign interference.
Hun Sen(ฮุน เซน)ℹ️
A political figure in Cambodia, mentioning his influence on the Thailand-Cambodia border situation.

Organization

Ubon Ratchathani University(ม.อุบลราชธานี)ℹ️
An academic institution where Thanachet Wisaijorn is affiliated.
Chiang Mai University(ม.เชียงใหม่)ℹ️
An academic institution where Thitipong Boonyawongvivat is affiliated.
ASEAN(อาเซียน)ℹ️
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, mentioned as a potential mechanism for maintaining regional security and stability.

Place

Cambodia(กัมพูชา)ℹ️
A neighboring country to Thailand involved in the maritime boundary dispute and the subject of MOU 44.
Gulf of Thailand(อ่าวไทย)ℹ️
The body of water where Thailand and Cambodia have overlapping maritime claims, a key area of discussion regarding MOU 44.

Law

MOU 44(เอ็มโอยู 44)
A Memorandum of Understanding between Thailand and Cambodia concerning the negotiation framework for overlapping maritime claims, which is being considered for cancellation.
Joint Development Area (JDA)(พื้นที่พัฒนาร่วม (Joint Development Area – JDA))
A concept within MOU 44 for developing resources in a jointly claimed maritime area.
UNCLOSℹ️
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, cited as a potential basis for a new negotiation framework.